Chap。XV
ApplicationoftheabovePrinciplestotheStateofPopulationinGreatBritainAletterfromDrBrakenridge，F。R。S。addressedtoGeorgeLewisScott，Esq；whichIfoundintheDanishMercuryforMarch1758，furnishesmewithaverygoodopportunityofapplyingtheprincipleswehavebeenlayingdowntothestateofpopulationinGreat-Britain。Ishalltherefore，accordingtomyplan，passinreviewthatgentleman’sopinion，withoutenteringuponanyrefutationofit。Ishallextractthepropositionshelaysdown，examinetheconclusionshedrawsfromthem，andthenshewwhereintheydifferfromthosewhichresultfromthetheoryestablishedinthisinquiry。
Theauthor’scalculationsandsuppositionsastomattersoffactshallbetakenforgranted，asIbelievethefirstareasgoodasanythatcanbemade，uponasubjectwhereallthedatarequiredforsolvingtheproblemarequiteapieceofguess-work。
ImustfollowtheMercury，nothavingtheoriginal。
Prop。I。Afteraverycloseexamination，saysourauthor，I
find，thatourislandsgain，astopopulation，absolutelynomorethanwhatisrequisiteforrepairingtheirlosses，andthat，inEnglanditself，numberswoulddiminish，weretheynotrecruitedfromIrelandandScotland。
Prop。II。Men，abletocarryarms，thatisfrom18to56
years，make，accordingtoDrHalley，thefourthpartofapeople；
andwhenapeopleincreaseinnumbers，everydenomination，astoage，increasesinthisproportion:consequentlyinEngland，wherethenumberofinhabitantsdoesnotexceedsixmillions，iftheannualaugmentationuponthewholedonotexceed18，000，asIamprettysureitdoesnot，theyearlyaugmentationofthosefittocarryarmswillbenomorethan4，500。
Prop。III。InEngland，burialsaretobirthsas100isto113。Isuppose，thatinScotlandandIreland，theymaybeas100
isto124。Andastheremaybeinthesetwolastkingdomsabouttwomillionsandahalfofinhabitants，thewholeaugmentationmaybestatedat15，000；andconsequentlythatofsuchasarefittocarryarms，at3，750。AddthisnumbertothoseannuallyproducedinEngland，andthesumtotalofthewholeaugmentationintheBritishisleswillbeabout8，250。
Prop。IV。Thestrangers，whoarriveinEngland，inordertosettle，aresupposedtocompensatethosewholeavethecountrywiththesameintent。
Prop。V。Itisoutofthisnumberof8，250，thatallourlossesaretobededuced。Ifthecolonies，wars，andnavigation，carryofffromusannually8，000men，theBritishislescannotaugmentinpeople:ifwelosemore，numbersmustdiminish。
Prop。VI。Bycalculations，suchastheyare，ourauthorfinds，that，uponanaverageof66years，from1690to1756，thisnumberof8，000hasbeenannuallylost，thatis，theyhavediedabroadinthecolonies，inwar，orontheaccountofnavigation。
Prop。VII。That，sincetheinhabitantsofBritainandIrelandareabout8，000，000，andthattheaugmentationisannuallyabout8，000，wemayconcludeingeneralforallEurope，that，foreverymillionofhabitants，thereisanannualaugmentationof1，000；
consequently，everythousandmenslaininwarmustdestroyalltheaugmentationofamillionofinhabitantsduringayear。
ConsequentlyFrance，whichcontains14millions，accordingtoSirWilliamPetty，havinglostabove14，000mena-year，duringthesame66years，cannothaveaugmentedinpopulation。
Prop。VIII。Thattheprogressoftradeandnavigationaugmentingthelossofpeoplebysea，mustconsequentlyhavediminishedpopulationoverallEurope。
Prop。IX。Theexportationofourcornproveswhattheabovepropositionshavedemonstrated。Forsupposingtheprogressofagriculturetocompensatetheadditionalquantitydistilledoflateyears，thereisstillone-sixthofthecropexported，whichprovesthatournumbersaresmall，andthattheydonotaugment。
Fromthesepropositionsourauthorconcludes，thatwhatstopsmultiplicationintheBritishislesis，first，Thatlivingincelibacyisbecomea-la-mode:secondly，Thatwarshavebeencarriedonbeyondthenation’sforce:thirdly，Thattheuseofspirituousliquorsdestroysgreatnumbersofinhabitants。
IshallnowshortlyapplytheprinciplesIhavebeenlayingdown，inordertoresolveeveryphenomenonheredescribed，astothepopulationofGreatBritain。ThesephenomenaIshallwillinglytakeforgranted，asitisofnoconsequencetomyreasoning，whethertheybeexactornot:itisenoughthattheymaybeso；andthequestionhereisonlytoaccountforthem。
England，sayshe，woulddiminishinnumbers，wereitnotrecruitedfromScotlandandIreland。This，Isay，isacontingent，notacertainconsequence:fordidthosegrown-upadventurersceasetocomein，theinhabitantsofEnglandthemselveswouldundoubtedlymultiply，providedanadditionalnumberofbreederscouldbefound，abletobringuptheirchildren。Nowtheimportationofgrownmenintoacountrysofarresemblestheimportationofslavesintoourcolonies，thattheoneandtheotherdiminishesthepriceoflabour，andtherebypreventsmarriageamongcertainclassesofthenatives，whoseprofitsarenotsufficientforbringingupafamily:andwhenanysuchdomarrynotwithstanding，theydonotmultiply，ashasbeensaid。NowweretheScotsandIrishtocomenomoreintoEngland，thepriceoflabourwouldrise；thosewhonowcannotbringupchildren，mightthenbeenabledtodoit，andthiswouldmaketheEnglishmultiplythemselves；thatis，itwouldaugmentthenumberoftheirownbreeders。Ontheotherhand，didthepriceoflabourcontinuetoolowtoproveasufficientencouragementforanadditionalnumberofEnglishbreeders，thecontingentconsequencewouldtakeplace；thatis，numberswoulddiminish，accordingtoourauthor’ssupposition，andtheexportationofgrainwouldincrease，inproportiontothatdiminution；anddidforeigndemandforgraindiminishalso，thenagriculturewouldsuffer，andeverythingwoulddecline。
Therepresentationhegivesofthestateofpopulationinthesecountries，isonemodificationofwhatIhavecalledamoralincapacityofapeople’sincreasinginnumbers。ItisjustsoinAfrica，wheretheinhabitantsaresold:justsoinSwitzerland，andinmanymountainouscountries，whereinhabitantsdesertinordertoseektheirfortuneselsewhere。Thenationalstockremainsatanequalstandard，andtheaugmentationuponbirthsaboveburialsisconstantlyinproportiontotheexportationofinhabitants。Letthisproportionriseeversohigh，anincreaseofnationalpopulationisnowaysessentiallytobeimpliedfromthisphenomenonalone，butmustproceedfromothercauses。
Icanfindnothingadvancedbyourauthortoprove，oreventoinduceonetobelieve，thathadthelivesofthoseeightthousandsbeenyearlypreservedfromextraordinarydangers，numberswouldhaveaugmented。Englandenjoyedinamanner26
yearspeaceafterthetreatyofUtrecht。Formanyyearsbeforethistreaty，averydestructivewarhadbeencarriedon。Hadthebillsofbirthsbeenproducedfrom1701to1713，hadtheybeencomparedwiththosefromthislastperiodto1739，whentheSpanishwarbegan，hadweseenagradualaugmentationfromyeartoyearduringthoselast26years，suchasmightbeexpectedfromthepreservationofaconsiderablenumberatleastofthe8，250ablehealthymen，justintheperiodoflifefitforpropagation，onemightbetemptedtoconclude，thattheprecedingwarhaddonehurttopopulation，byinterruptingthepropagationofthespecies。Butif，bycomparingthebillsofbirthsforaconsiderablenumberofyears，inwarandinpeace，onecandiscovernosensibledifference，itisverynaturaltoconclude，eitherthatthosewarsdidnotdestroymanybreeders，orthatothersmusthavesliptindirectly，andbredintheplaceofthosewhohadbeenkilled。Whatotherwisecanbethereasonwhythenumberwhichourauthorsupposestohavebeendestroyedabroad，shouldsoexactlycompensatetheannualaugmentation，butonlythatthosenationsarestockedtothefullproportionoftheirsubsistence:andwhatisthereasonwhy，afteradestructivewar，which，bythesuddennessoftherevolution，sweepsoffnumbersofthegrownmen，anddiminishestheoriginalstock，numbersshouldinafewyearsgetuptotheformerstandard，andthenstopa-new？
Fromourauthor’srepresentationofthebillsofbirthsanddeaths，Ishouldbeapttosuspect，inconsequenceofmyprinciples，thatuponaproperexaminationitwillbefound，that，inthoseyearsofwar，theproportionofbirthstodeathshadbeenhigherthaninyearsofpeace，becausemorehaddiedabroad。And，hadtheslaughteroftheinhabitantsgonegraduallyon，increasingeveryyearbeyondthe8，250，Iamofopinion，thattheproportionofbirthsmightverypossiblyhavekeptpacewithit。Onthecontrary，duringtheyearsofpeace，theproportionwouldhavediminished，andhadnobodydiedoutofthecountryatall，thebirthsanddeathswouldhavebecomeexactlyequal。
FromwhatIhaveheresaid，thereadermayperceive，thatitisnotwithoutreasonthatIhavetreatedinthegeneral，theprinciplesrelatingtomysubject，andthatIavoidasmuchaspossibletoreasonfromfactsallegedastothestateofparticularcountries。Thoseourauthorbuildsuponmaybetrue，andmaybefalse:theproportionofbirthsanddeathsinoneplaceisnoruleforanotherweknownothingexactlyaboutthestateofthisquestionintheBritishisles；anditmayevendailyvary，fromathousandcircumstances。Warmaydestroypopulationaswellasagriculture，anditmaynot，accordingtocircumstances。Whenthecalamityfallsuponthebreeders，andwhenthesearesupposedtheonlypeopleinthecountryinacapacityofbringinguptheirchildren，birthswillsoondiminish。Whenitdestroystheindigent，whocannotbringuptheirchildren，orwhodonotmarry，birthswillremainthesame。
Thekillingthewethersofaflockofsheepdoesnotdiminishthebroodoflambsnextyear；thekillingofoldpigeonsmakesapigeon-housethrive。Whenthecalamityfallsuponthefarmers，whomakeourlandsproduce，agricultureishurt，nodoubt:doesitfalluponthesuperfluitiesofcities，andotherclassesofthefreehands，itmaydiminishmanufacturers，butagriculturewillgoon，whilethereisademandforitsproduce；andifadiminutionofconsumptionathomebeaconsequenceofthewar，theaugmentationuponexportationwillmorethancompensateit。I
donotfindthatwardiminishesthedemandforsubsistence。
ThelongwarsinFlandersinthebeginningofthiscenturyinterruptedagriculturenowandthen，butdidnotdestroyit。
ThatinthePalatinateintheendofthelastruinedthecountryso，thatithashardlyasyetrecoveredit。Warhasdifferenteffects，accordingtocircumstances。
OBJ。ThepopulationoftheBritishislesisnotstoptforwantoffood，becauseone-sixthpartofthecropisannuallyexported。Ianswer，thatitisstillstoptforwantoffood，fortheexportationmarksonlythatthehomedemandissatisfied；butthisdoesnotprovethattheinhabitantsarefullfed，althoughtheycanbuynomoreattheexportationprice。Thosewhocannotbuy，areexactlythosewhoIsaydieforwantofsubsistence；
couldtheybuy，theywouldliveandmultiply，andnograinperhapswouldbeexported。Thisisaplainconsequenceofmyreasoning；andmyprincipalpointinview，throughoutthiswholebook，istofindoutamethodforenablingtheindigenttobuyupthisveryquantitywhichisatpresentexported。Bythisapplicationofourprinciples，Ihavenooccasiontocallinquestionourauthor’sfacts。Itisnomatterwhatbethestateofthecase:iftheprinciplesIlaydownbejust，theymustresolveeveryphenomenon。
Chap。XVI
WhyaresomeCountriesfoundverypopulousinrespectofothers，equallywellcalculatedforImprovement？
Thisquestioncomesimmediatelyundertheinfluenceoftheprinciplesalreadylaiddown，andmustberesolvedinconsequenceofthem。Itiswithaviewtomaketheapplicationofthese，thatIhaveproposedit；and，intheexamination，weshallprovetheirjustness，ordiscovertheirdefects。
Itmaybeansweredingeneral，thateverysuchdifferencemustproceedfromwhatIcallthespiritofthegovernmentandofthepeople，whichwillnotonlydecideastonumbers，butastomanyotherthings。Imusthoweverobserve，thatthequestioninitselfisoflittleimportance，ifnothingbutnumbersbeconsidered；forofwhatconsequenceisittoknowhowmanypeopleareinacountry，whentheemploymentofthemdoesnotenterintotheinquiry？Besides，itisbyexaminingtheemploymentonlyofapeople，thatIcanformanyjudgmentastothisparticular。Butasthenumbersofmankindhavebeenthoughtapointworthyofexamination，Ihavechosenthistitleforachapter，whichmightperhapshavemoreproperlystoodunderanother。
Whileslaveryprevailed，Iseenoreasontoconcludeanythingagainstthepopulousnessoftheworld，asIhavesaidalready:whenslaverywasabolished，andbeforeindustrytookplace，ifmyprinciplesbetrue，thatperiod，Ithink，shouldmarkthetimeofthethinnestpopulationinEurope；forIbelieveitwillbefound，thatthereneverwasanexampleofacountry，howeverfertilebynature，whereeveryonewasabsolutelyfree；
wheretherewaslittleornoindustry；andwhere，atthesametime，thereweremanyinhabitants，notbeggars，norlivinguponcharity。Ihavementionedthissooften，thatIamafraidoftiringmyreaderwithuselessrepetitions。Ihavebroughtitinhere，togivehimonlyanopportunityofapplyingthisprincipletothesolutionofthequestionbeforeus。
Ishallbeginmyinquirybyaskingwhatisunderstoodbyacountry’sbeingpopulous；forthistermpresentsdifferentideas，ifcircumstancesarenotattendedto。Ihavehearditsaid，thatFrancewasadesert，andthattherewasnobodyfoundinitbutintowns；whileinEnglandonecannottravelhalfamilewithoutfindingafarm，perhapstwotogether；andinlookinground，oneseesthewholecountrydividedintosmallpossessions。Thedifferenceherefound，Iapprehend，decidesnothinginfavourof，oragainsttherealpopulousnessoftheoneortheother，butproceedsentirelyfromcircumstancesrelativetoagriculture，andtothedistributionoffreehands。Thesecircumstanceswillbebetterunderstoodfromtheexaminationoffacts，thanfromthebesttheoryintheworld。LetoneconsiderthestateofagricultureinPicardyandinBeauce，andthencompareitwiththepracticeinmanyprovincesinEngland，andthecontrastwillappearstriking。WeretheremoreforestinEngland，tosupplytheinhabitantswithfuel，Iimaginemanyinclosures，usefulatfirstforimprovingthegrounds，wouldbetakenaway，andthecountrylaidmoreopen；werewolveslesscommoninFrance，therewouldbefoundmorescatteredfarms。Cattletheremustbeshutupinthenight，andcannotbeleftinthefields；thisisagreatdiscouragementtoinclosing。Wheretherearenoinclosures，therearefewadvantagestobefoundfromestablishingthefarmhouseexactlyuponthespotofgroundtobelaboured；andthentheadvantageswhichresulttocertainclassesofinhabitants，frombeinggatheredtogether，thefarmerswiththetradesmen，arefoundtopreponderate。ThustheFrenchfarmersaregatheredintovillages，andtheEnglishremainupontheirfields。Butfarther；
inPicardyandBeauceagriculturehasbeenlongestablished，and，Iimagine，that，atthetimewhenlandswerefirstbrokenup，orratherimproved，theirhabitationsmusthavebeenclosertogether。
Thisdrawingtogetherofinhabitantsmustleavemanyruinouspossessions，andthis，by-the-bye，isonereasonwhypeoplecryoutuponthedesolationofFrance，becauseruinoushouseswhichmayoftentimesbeamarkofimprovement，notofdesertionarefoundindifferentplacesinthecountry。Parishasgrownconsiderablyinbulk，andfromthisitnaturallyhappens，thatthecountryroundispurgedofidlemouths。Ifthismakeslabourdearinthecountry，itisthecityalonewhichsuffersbyit；
thecountrymustcertainlybethegainers。SomuchforthetwospeciesofpopulationintwoofthebestinhabitedcountriesofEurope。Inowcometoanotherinoneoftheworst。
Insomecountriesyoufindeveryfarm-housesurroundedwithsmallhuts，possessedbynumbersofpeople，supposedtobeusefultothefarmer。TheseinScotlandarecalledcottarscottagers，becausetheyliveincottages。Ifyouconsidertheminapoliticallight，theywillappeartobeinhabitantsappropriatedforagriculture。Inonesensetheyareso，ifbythatyouunderstandthegatheringinofthefruits；inanothertheyarenot，ifbyagricultureyouunderstandtheturningupthesurface。
Ibringinthisexample，andshallenlargealittleuponit，becauseIimagineittobe，lessormore，thepictureofEurope400yearsago。
TheScotchfarmermusthavehandstogatherinascantyproduce，spreadoveralargeextentofground。Hehassixcottars，Ishallsuppose；butthesecottarsmusthavewives，andthesewiveswillhavechildren，andallmustbefedbeforethemaster’srentcanbepaid。Itnevercomesintothecottar’sheadtosupposethathischildrencangainmoneybytheirindustry，thefarmerneversupposesthatitispossibleforhimtopayhisrentwithouttheassistanceofhiscottarstotendhiscattle，andgatherinhiscrop；andthemastercannotgoagainstthecustomofthecountry，withoutlayinghislandwaste。Allthesechildrenarereadyatthefarmer’sdisposal；hecan，withoutanyexpence，sendwhatparcelsofsheephepleases，todifferentdistancesofhalfamileormore，tofeeduponspotsofgroundwhich，withouttheconvenienceofthesechildren，wouldbeentirelylost。Bythisplanoffarming，landlordswhohaveagreatextentofcountrywhichtheyarenotabletoimprove，canletthewholeinaveryfewfarms，andatthesametimeallthespontaneousproduceoftheearthisgatheredinandconsumed。Ifyoucomparetherentoftheselandswiththeextent，itappearsverysmall；ifyoucompareitwiththenumbersfeduponthefarm，youwillfindthatanestateinthehighlandsmaintains，perhaps，tentimesasmanypeopleasanotherofthesamevalueinagoodandfertileprovince。Thusitisinsomeestatesasinsomeconventsofthebeggingorder，themoremouthsthebettercheer。
Ishallnowsupposeourmodernpolicytoinspireaningeniousorpublic-spiritedladytosetupaweaverortwoatafarm-house。Thecottarsbegintospin；theywillbealongtimeinattainingtoadexteritysufficienttoappearattheweaver’shouse，incompetitionwithotherswhoareaccustomedtothetrade；consequentlythismanufacturewillbelonginalanguishingcondition；butiftheundertakingissupportedwithpatience，theseobstacleswillbegotthebetterof。Thosewhotendedherdsofcattleforapoormaintenance，willturnthemselvestoamoreprofitableoccupation；thefarmerwillfindmoredifficultyingettinghands，hewillcomplain，perhapsgiveway；themasterwillloseayear’srent，andnobodywilltakesoextensiveafarm；itmustbedivided，thenitmustbeimproved，andthenitproducesmoregrainupononetenth，thanperhapsformerlywasproduceduponthewhole。Thisgrainisboughtwiththepriceofspinning；theparentsdividewiththechildren，whoarefed，andspinintheirturn。Whenthisisaccomplished，whatistherevolution？Why，formerlytheearthfedalltheinhabitantswithherspontaneousproductions，asImaycallthem；
nowmorelabourisexerciseduponturninguphersurface；thisshepaysingrain，whichbelongstothestrongmanforhislabourandtoil；womenandchildrenhavenodirectshare，becausetheyhavenotcontributedthereto，astheydidinfeedingcattle。Buttheyspin，andhavemoneytobuywhattheyhavenotforcetoproduce:consequentlytheylive；butastheybecomeuselessascottars，theyremovefromtheirmotherearth，andgatherintovillages。Whenthischangeiseffected，thelandsappearlessinhabited；ruinoushutsnay，villagesImaycallthemarefrequentlyfound，andmanywouldbeapttoconclude，thatthecountryisdepopulated；butthisisbynomeansfoundtobethecase，whenthewholeistakentogether。
Thespiritthereforeoftheprincipalpeopleofacountrydeterminestheemploymentofthelowerclasses；theemploymentofthesedeterminestheirusefulnesstothestate，andtheirusefulness，theirmultiplication。Themoretheyareuseful，themoretheygain，accordingtoourdefinitionofthecontractofsociety；themoretheygain，themoretheycanfeed；andconsequently，themoretheywillmarryanddividewiththeirchildren。Thisincreasesusefulpopulation，andencouragesagriculture。Comparetheformerwiththepresentsituation，astonumbers，astoease，astohappiness！
Isitnotplain，thatwhentheearthisnotimproved，itcannotproducesomuchnourishmentformanaswhenitis？Ontheotherhand，ifindustrydoesnotdrawintothehandsoftheindigent，wherewithtopurchasethisadditionalnourishment，nobodywillbeataconsiderablefirstexpencetobreakupgroundsinordertoproduceit。Thewithdrawingthereforeanumberofhandsfromatriflingagricultureforces，inamanner，thehusbandmantoworktheharder:andbyhardlabouruponasmallspot，thesameeffectisproducedaswithslightlabouruponagreatextent。
Ihavesaid，thatIimaginedthestateofagricultureintheScotchfarm，wasaprettyjustrepresentationofthegeneralstateofEuropeabout400yearsago:ifnotineveryprovinceofeverycountry，atleastineverycountryforthemostpart。
Severalreasonsinducemetothinkso:first，wherethereisnoindustry，nothingbuttheearthdirectlycanfeedherchildren，littlealienationofherfruitscantakeplace。Next，becauseI
findawonderfulanalogybetweenthewayoflivinginsomeprovincesofdifferentcountrieswithwhatIhavebeendescribing。Pipers，bluebonnets，andoatmeal，areknowninSwabia，Auvergne，Limousin，andCatalonia，aswellasinLochaber:numbersofidle，poor，uselesshands，multitudesofchildren，whomIhavefoundtobefed，nobodyknowshow，doingalmostnothingattheageoffourteen，keepingofcattleandgoingtoschool，theonlyoccupationssupposedpossibleforthem。
Ifyouaskwhytheyarenotemployed，theirparentswilltellyoubecausecommerceisnotinthecountry:theytalkofcommerceasifitwasaman，whocomestoresideinsomecountriesinordertofeedtheinhabitants。Thetruthis，itisnotthefaultofthesepoorpeople，butofthosewhosebusinessitistofindoutemploymentforthem。
AnotherreasonIderivefromthenatureoftheoldtenures，wherewefindlandswhichnowproducelargequantitiesofgrain，grantedforameretrifle，whenatthesametimeothersintheneighbourhoodofcitiesandabbeysarefoundchargedwithconsiderablerents。ThisIattributetothebadcultivationoflandsatthattime，fromwhichIinfer，asmallpopulation。Inthosedaysoftroubleandconfusion，confiscationswereveryfrequent，largetractsoflandsweregrantedtothegreatlordsupondifferentrevolutions，andthese，findingthemoftendeserted，asismentionedinhistory，thevassalsoftheformerbeingeitherdestroyedordrivenouttomakeplaceforthenewcomers，usedtoparcelthemoutforsmallreturnsineverythingbutpersonalservice。Suchsuddenandviolentrevolutionsmustdispeopleacountry；andnothingbuttranquility，security，order，andindustry，foragestogether，canrenderitpopulous。
Besidesthesenaturalcausesofpopulationanddepopulationwhichproceed，aswehaveobserved，fromacertainturngiventothespiritofapeople，thereareotherswhichoperatewithirresistibleforce，bysuddenandviolentrevolutions。TheKingofPrussia，forexample，attemptedtopeople，acountryallatonce，byprofitingofthedesertionoftheSaltzburgers。Americaisbecomeverypoorlypeopledinsomespotsuponthecoast，andinsomeislands，attheexpenceoftheexportationofmillionsfromEuropeandfromAfrica；suchmethodsnevercansucceedinproportiontotheattempt。Spain，ontheotherhand，wasdepopulatedbytheexpulsionofitsantichristianinhabitants。
Thesecausesworkevidenteffects，whichthereislittleoccasiontoexplain，althoughthemoreremoteconsequencesofthemmaydeserveobservation。Ishall，inanotherplace，haveoccasiontoexaminethemannerofourpeoplingAmerica。Inthisplace，I
shallmakeafewobservationsuponthedepopulationofSpain，andfinishmychapter。
ThatcountryissaidtohavebeenancientlyverypopulousunderthegovernmentoftheMoors。Iamnotsufficientlyversedinthepolitics，oeconomy，andmannersofthatpeople，tojudgehowfarthesemightbefavourabletopopulation:whatseems，however，toconfirmwhatwearetold，is，thelargerepositoriestheyusedforpreservinggrain，whichstillremainentire，thoughneveroncemadeuseof。TheywateredthekingdomsofValencia，Murcia，andGranada。Theygatheredthemselvesintocities，ofwhichwestillcandiscovertheextent。ThecountrywhichtheynowpossessthoughdrierthanSpainfurnishesEuropewithconsiderablequantitiesofgrain。ThepalaceoftheMoorishKingatGranadashewsatasteforluxury。ThemosqueofCordouaspeaksalargecapital。Allthesearesymptomsofpopulation，buttheyonlyhelponetoguess。Thenumberswhichhistorymentionstohavebeendrivenout，isabetterwaystillofjudging；ifthefidelityofhistorianscouldbedependedupon，whenthereisanyquestionaboutnumbers。
Herewasanexampleofacountrydepopulatedinaveryextraordinarymanner:yetIamofopinion，thatthescarcityofinhabitantscomplainedofinthatcountry，foralongtimeaftertheexpulsion，didnotsomuchproceedfromtheeffectsofthelosssustained，asfromthecontrastbetweenthespiritofthosechristianswhoremainedaftertheexpulsion，andtheircatholicdeliverers。ThechristianswholivedamongtheMoors，werereallyMoorsastomanners，thoughnotastoreligion。HadtheyadoptedthespiritofthesubjectsofCastile，orhadtheybeengovernedaccordingtotheirown，numberswouldsoonhaverisentotheformerstandard。ButasthechristianlordgovernedhisMurcian，Andalousian，andGranadasubjects，accordingtotheprinciplesofchristianpolicy，wasitanywonderthatinsuchanageofignorance，prejudice，andsuperstition，thecountryoneofthefinestintheworldshouldbelonginrecovering？Recover，however，itdid；andsoonerperhapsthaniscommonlybelieved:
forIsayitwasrecoveredsosoonasalltheflatandwateredlandswerebroughtintocultivation；becauseIhavereasontobelievethattheMoorsnevercarriedtheiragriculturefartherinthesesouthernprovinces。
FromthisIstillconclude，thatnodestructionofinhabitantsbyexpulsion，captivity，war，pestilenceorfamine，issopermanentlyhurtfultopopulation，asarevolutioninthatspiritwhichisnecessaryfortheincreaseandsupportofnumbers。Letthatspiritbekeptup，andletmankindbewellgoverned，numberswillquicklyincreasetotheirformerstandard，afterthegreatestreductionpossible:andwhiletheyareupontheaugmentinghand，thestatewillbefoundinmoreheartandmorevigour，thanwhenarrivedevenattheformerheight；forsosoonasastateceasestogrowinprosperity，Iapprehenditbeginstodecaybothinhealthandvigour。
Chap。XVII
InwhatMannerandaccordingtowhatProportiondoPlentyandScarcityaffectaPeopleInaformerchapterIhaveexaminedthisquestion，relativelytomankindfedbythehandofnature:Inowcomenearerhome，andshallkeepclosetomoderntimes，consideringcircumstancesandeffectswhichbydailyexperienceweseeandfeel。
Ihaveoftensaid，thatnumbersareinproportiontotheproduceoftheearth。Inowsay，thatinmostcountriesofEurope，thefoodproducedinthecountryisnearlyconsumedbytheinhabitants:andbynearlyIunderstand，thatthepartexportedbearsasmallproportiontothehome-consumption。Idobynomeansestablishthisasanuniversalproposition；butIsayitistrueforthemostpart:andtheintentionofthischapteristoenableustojudgehowfartheselimitationsshouldextend。
Iallow，forexample，thatHolland，notproducingfoodforitsinhabitants，mustdrawitfromsomecountrywhichproducesasuperfluity，regularly。butletitbeobservedthatPoland，Germany，Flanders，andEngland，withmanyothercountries，contributetheircontingentstosupplythedemandoftheDutch；
andofseverallargetradingtownswhichhavesmallterritories。
Thisbeingthecase，thequotafurnishedbyeachcountry，mustbeinasmallproportiontotherespectivequantitygrowinginit。
Butthesearegeneralconclusionsuponvaguesuppositions，whichthrownolightonthequestion。Ishallthereforeendeavourtoapplyourreasoningtofacts，andthenexamineconsequences。
Therearefewcountries，Ibelieve，inEuropemoreaboundingingrainthanEngland:IshallthereforekeepthatkingdominmyeyewhileIexaminethismatter。Nothingismorecommonthantohearthatanabundantcropfurnishesmorethanthreeyears’
subsistence:nay，Ihavefounditadvancedbyanauthorofconsideration，AdvantagesandDisadvantagesofFranceandGreatBritain，&c。articleGrain，thataplentifulyearproducesfiveyears’nourishmentfortheinhabitants。Ifthisbeamistake，itmayproveaveryhurtfuloneinmanyrespects。Iam，onthecontrary，apttobelieve，thatnoannualproduceofgraineverwassogreatinEnglandastosupplyitsinhabitantsfifteenmonths，inthatabundancewithwhichtheyfeedthemselvesinayearofplenty。Ifthisbethecase，atwhatmaywecomputethesurplusinordinarygoodyears？Ibelieveitwillbethoughtaverygoodyearwhichproducesfullsubsistenceforfourteenmonths；andcropswhichmuchexceedthisare，Ibelieve，veryrare。HerefollowmyreasonsfordifferingsowidelyfromthegentlemanwhomIhavecited。IfIaminthewrong，Ishallhavethemostsensiblepleasureinbeingsetright；andnothingwillbesoeasytoanyonewhohasaccesstobebetterinformedastofactsthanIcanpretendtobe。
IconsideralltheyearlycropofgraininEnglandasconsumedathome，exceptwhatisexported；forIcannotadmitthatanyconsiderablequantityislost:thatitmaybeabused，misapplied，drunkwhenitshouldbeeat，Idonotdeny。Thesearequestionswhichdonotregardthepresentinquiry。Whetherthereforeitbeconsumedinbread，beer，spirits，orbyanimals，Ireckonitconsumed；andinayearwhenthegreatestconsumptionismadeathome，thisIcalltheabundancewithwhichtheinhabitantsfeedthemselvesinyearsofplenty。NowIfindintheperformanceabovecited，astateofexportationsforfiveyears，from1746to1750inclusive，wherethequantityexportedamountsinallto5，289，847quartersofallsortsofgrain。Thisisnotoneyear’sprovision，accordingtoSirWilliamPetty’scalculation，ofwhichwehavemadementionabove。Thebountiesuponcorncontinuestheauthorabovementionedhaveamountedinoneyearto500，000l，sterling。Hedoesnotmentiontheyear，andIamlittleabletodisputethatmatterwithhim。Isupposeittobetrue；andstillfarther，letitbeunderstoodthatthewholeexportationwasmadeoutoftheproduceofonecrop。Idonotfindthatthissumanswerstothebountyupon3，000，000ofquarters，which，accordingtoSirWilliamPetty，makesixmonths’
provision。Icalculatethus:Thebountyuponwheatis5s。aquarter，thatuponrye3s。6d。thatuponbarley2s。6d。thesearethespeciesofgraincommonlyexported:castthethreepremiumstogether，anddividebythree，thebountywillcometo3s。8d。atamedium；atwhichrate500，000l。sterlingwillpaythebountyof2，727，272quartersofgrain。Animmensequantitytobeexported！
butaveryinconsiderablepartofacropsupposedcapabletomaintainEnglandforfiveyears。Itmaybeanswered，thatthegreatabundanceofaplentifulyearisconsiderablydiminishedwhenascantycrophappenstoprecedeit，ortofollowuponit。
Inthefirstcase，itissoonerbegunupon；inthelast，itsuppliestheconsumptionintheyearofscarcity，considerably。
ThisIallowtobejust；butasitisnotuncommontoseeacourseofgoodyearsfollowoneanother，thestateofexportationatsuchtimesmustcertainlybethebest，nay，theonlymethodofjudgingoftherealextentofsuperfluity。
Ontheotherhand，Iamapttobelieve，thatthereneverwasayearofsuchscarcityasthatthelandsofEnglanddidnotproducegreatlyabovesixmonths，subsistence，suchasthepeopleareusedtotakeinyearsofscarcity。Weresixmonthsofthemostslendersubsistencetofail，IimagineallEuropetogethermightperhapsbeatalosstosupplyaquantitYsufficienttopreventthegreatestdesolationbyfamine。
AsIhavenoaccesstolookintorecords，Icontentmyselfwithlessauthenticdocuments。IfindthenbytheLondonnews-papers，that，fromthe9thofApriltothe13thofAugust1757，whilegreatscarcitywasfeltinEngland，thereweredeclaredintheportofLondonnomorethan71，728quartersofwheat，ofwhich15，529werenotthenarrived。Sothatthewholequantitythereimportedtorelievethescarcity，was56，199
quarters。Notonemonth’sprovisionfortheinhabitantsofthatcity，reckoningthemat800，000souls！Onewhohasaccesstolookintotheregistersofthetradeingrain，mightinamomentdeterminethisquestion。8*
Anotherreasonwhichinducesmetobelievewhattheaboveargumentsseemtoprove，IdrawfromwhatIseeatpresentpassinginGermany；Imeantheuniversalcomplaintsofscarcityinthosearmieswhicharenowassembled1757。Whenwecomparethenumbersofanarmy，letitbeofahundredthousandmen，andfortythousandhorses；supposethesuitofittobeasmanymore，allstrangersfortheothersIreckonnothingextraordinary；
whataninconsiderablenumberdoesthisappear，inproportiontotheinhabitantsofthisvastcountryofGermany！YetletusobservethequantityofprovisionsofallsortsconstantlycomingdowntheRhine，theMoselle，andmanyotherrivers，collectedfromforeignprovincesonallhands；thenumbersofcattlecomingfromHungary；theloadsofcornfromPoland；andallthisinayearwhichhasproducedwhatatanyothertimewouldhavebeencalledanexcellentcrop。Aftertheseforeignsupplies，mustnotonebeastonishedtofindscarcitycomplainedofintheprovinceswherethewariscarriedon，andhighpriceseverywhereelse。
FromsuchcircumstancesImustconclude，thatpeoplearegenerallyverymuchdeceivedintheirestimationofplentyandscarcity，whentheytalkoftwoorthreeyears’subsistenceforacountrybeingfoundupontheirlandsatonce。Imayindeedbemistakeninmyconclusions；butthemoreIhavereflecteduponthissubject，themoreIfindmyselfconfirmedinthem，evenfromthefamiliarexamplesofthesuddenriseofmarketsfromveryinconsiderablemonopolies，andoftheirsuddenfallbyinconsiderablequantitiesimported。Icouldcitemanyexamplesofthesevicissitudes，wereitnecessary，toprovewhateveryonemustobserve。
Icomenowtoresolveadifficultywhichnaturallyresultsfromthisdoctrine，andwithwhichIshallclosethechapter。
Ifitbetrue，thatacropinthemostplentifulyearisnearlyconsumedbytheinhabitants，whatbecomesoftheminyearsofscarcity？fornobodycandeny，thatthereisagreatdifference，betweenonecropandanother。TothisIanswer，first，ThatIbelievethereisalsoaverygreatdeception，orcommonmistake，astothedifferencebetweencrops:agoodyearforonesoil，isabadoneforanother。ButIshallnotenlargeonthis；becauseIhavenosufficientprooftosupportmyopinion。TheprincipalreasonuponwhichIfoundit，is，thatitisfarfrombeingtrue，thatthesamenumberofpeopleconsumealwaysthesamequantityoffood。Inyearsofplentyeveryoneiswellfed；thepriceofthelowestindustrycanprocuresubsistencesufficienttobearadivision；foodisnotsofrugallymanaged；aquantityofanimalsarefattedforuse；allsortsofcattlearekeptingoodheart；andpeopledrinkmorelargely，becauseallischeap。Ayearofscarcitycomes，thepeopleareillfed，andwhenthelowerclassescometodividewiththeirchildren，theportionsarebroughttobeverysmall；
thereisgreatoeconomyuponconsumption，fewanimalsarefattedforuse，cattlelookmiserably，andapoormancannotindulgehimselfwithacupofgenerousale。AddtoallthesecircumstancesthatinEnglandtheproduceofpastureisveryconsiderable，anditcommonlyhappens，thatabadyearforgrain，whichproceedsfromrains，isforthesamereasonagoodyearforpasture；andintheestimationofacrop，everycircumstancemustbeallowedtoenter。
FromwhathasbeensaidImustconcludeingeneral，thatthebestcorncountryintheworld，providedslaverybenotestablished，doesnotproducewherewithalfullytomaintain，asinyearsofplenty，onethirdmorethanitsowninhabitants；forifthisshouldbethecase，allthepolicyofmanwouldnotbeabletopreventthemultiplicationofthem，untiltheyarosenearlyuptothemeanproportionoftheproduceinordinaryyears，anditisonlywhatexceedsthisstandard，andproceedsfromunusualplenty，whichcanbeexported。9*Wereplentifulyearsmorecommon，mankindwouldbemorenumerous；werescarcitymorefrequent，numberswouldbeless。Numbersthereforemusteverbe，inmyhumbleopinion，intheratiooffood，andmultiplicationwillneverstopuntilthebalancecomestobenearlyeven。
Chap。XVIII
OftheCausesandConsequencesofaCountry’sbeingfullypeopledInthetitlesofmychapters，Iratherseektocommunicatearoughideaofthesubjectthanacorrectone。Intruthandinreason，thereisnosuchthingasacountryactuallypeopledtothefull，ifbythistermnumbersonlyaremeant，withoutconsideringtheproportiontheybeartotheconsumptiontheymakeoftheproductionsoftheircountry。Ihaveinaformerchapterestablishedadistinctionbetweenthephysicalandmoralimpossibilityofincreasingnumbers。Astothephysicalimpossibility，thecasecanhardlyexist，becausemeansofprocuringsubsistencefromothercountries，whenthesoilrefusestogivemore，seem，ifnotinexhaustible，atleastveryextensive。Acountrythereforefullypeopled，thatis，inaphysicalimpossibilityofincreasingtheirnumbers，isachimericalanduselesssupposition。Thesubjecthereunderconsiderationis，thesituationofapeople，whofindittheirinteresttoseekforsubsistencefromabroad。Thismayhappen，andcommonlydoes，longbeforethecountryitselfisfullyimproved:itdecidesnothingastotheintrinsicfertilityofthesoil，andprovesnomore，thanthattheindustryofthefreehandshasmadeaquickerprogressinmultiplyingmouths，thanthatofthefarmersinprovidingsubsistence。Toillustratethisidea，letmeproposethefollowingquestion:Ismultiplicationtheefficientcauseofagriculture，orisagriculturethatofmultiplication？
Ianswer，thatmultiplicationistheefficientcauseofagriculture，thoughIallow，that，intheinfancyofsociety，thespontaneousfruitsoftheearth，whicharefreetoall，aretheefficientcauseofamultiplication，whichmayrisetotheexactproportionofthem；ashasbeensaidabove。ThisIamnowtoexplain。
Ihavealreadydistinguishedthefruitsofagriculturefromtheearth’sspontaneousproductions:Imustfarthertakenotice，thatwhenIemploythetermagricultureintreatingofmodernpolicy，Ialwaysconsiderittobeexercisedasatrade，andproducingasurplus，andnotasthedirectmeansofsubsisting，whereallisconsumedbythehusbandman，ashasbeenfullyexplainedabove。Wehavesaidthatitisthesurplusproducedfromit，whichprovesafundformultiplyinginhabitants。Mowtheremustbeademandforthissurplus。Everypersonwhoishungrywillmakeademand，buteverysuchdemandwillnotbeanswered，andwillconsequentlyhavenoeffect。Thedemandermusthaveanequivalenttogive:itisthisequivalentwhichisthespringofthewholemachine；forwithoutthisthefarmerwillnotproduceanysurplus，andconsequentlyhewilldwindledowntotheclassofthosewholabourforactualsubsistence。Thepoor，whoproducechildren，makeanineffectualdemand，andwhentheycannotincreasetheequivalent，theydividethefoodtheyhavewiththenewcomers，andprovenoencouragementtoagriculture。Bydividing，thewholebecomeillfed，miserable，andthusextinguish。Nowbecauseitistheeffectualdemand，asImaycallit，whichmakesthehusbandmanlabourforthesakeoftheequivalent，andbecausethisdemandincreases，bythemultiplicationofthosewhohaveanequivalenttogive，thereforeIsaythatmultiplicationisthecause，andagriculturetheeffect。Ontheotherhand，Ithinkthespontaneousfruitsoftheearth，asinthesupposition，maybeconsideredasthecauseofacertainlimitedmultiplication；becauseinthiscasethereisnoequivalentdemanded。Theearthproduces，whetherherfruitsbeconsumedornot:mankindarefeduponthesegratuitously，andwithoutlabour，andtheexistenceofthefruitsisanteriortotheproductionofthosewhoaretoconsumethem。Thosewhoarefirstfed，drawtheirvigourfromtheirfood，andtheirmultiplicationfromtheirvigour。Thosewhoareproduced，livefreelyupontheirparentearth，andmultiplyuntilalltheproducebeconsumed:thenmultiplicationstops，aswehavesaid；
butestablishagriculture，andmultiplicationwillgoona-new。
Consequently，myreaderwillsay，agricultureisasmuchthecauseofthisnewmultiplication，asthespontaneousfruitswereofthefirst。Hereisaverynaturalconclusion，whichseemsdirectlytocontradictwhatwehavebeenendeavouringtoprove；
buttheknotiseasilyuntied。Wehaveseenhowtheexistenceofagriculturedependsupontheindustryofman；andhowthisindustryistheonlymeansofestablishingagriculture。Now，asthisindustryischieflypromotedbythemotiveofprovidingforourchildren，theprocreationofthemmustbeconsideredasthefirst，oratleastthemostpalpablepoliticalcauseofsettingmankindtowork，andthereforemaybeconsideredasanteriortoagriculture；whereas，ontheotherhand，theearth’sspontaneousproductionsbeinginsmallquantity，andquiteindependentofman，appear，asitwere，tobefurnishedbynature，inthesamewayasasmallsumisgiventoayoungman，inordertoputhiminawayofindustry，andofmakinghisfortune。Thesmallsumsetshima-going，butitishisindustrywhichmakesthefortune。
Fromthisillustrationitappears，thatifthedemandforfoodcanbemorereadilysuppliedfromabroadthanfromhome，itwillbetheforeignsubsistence，whichwillpreservenumbers，producedfromindustry，notfromdomesticagriculture；andthesenumberswill，intheirturn，produceanadvancementofitathome，byinspiringadesireinthehusbandmantoacquiretheequivalentwhichtheircountrymengivetostrangers。
Suchnations，whosestatesmenhavenotthetalenttoengagethehusbandmentowishfortheequivalent，whichthelabouroftheirfellow-citizenscanproduce，or，inotherwords，whocannotcreatereciprocalwantsanddependencesamongtheirsubjects，muststandinamoralincapacityofaugmentinginnumbers。Ofsuchstateswehavenooccasiontotreatinthischapter，anymorethanofthosewhoaresupposedtobeinthephysicalincapacityofmultiplying:ourpointofviewis，toexaminethenaturalconsequencesresultingfromademandforsubsistenceextendingitselftoforeigncountries。ThisItaketobethemotherofindustryathome，aswellasoftradeabroad；twoobjectswhichcometobetreatedofinthesecondbook。
Acountrymaybefullypeopledinthesenseweunderstandthisterminseveraldifferentways。Itmaybefullystockedatonetimewithsixmillions，andatanothermaymaintainperhapseightorevenninemillionswithease，withoutthesoil’sbeingbettercultivatedorimproved。Ontheotherhand，acountrymaymaintaintwentymillionswithease，andbybeingimprovedastothesoil，becomeover-stockedwithfifteenmillions。Thesetwoassertionscomenexttobeexplained。
Themorefrugalapeopleare，andthemoretheyfeedupontheplentifulproductionsoftheearth，themoretheymayincreaseinnumbers。
WerethepeopleofEnglandtocomemoreintotheuseoflivinguponbread，andgiveoverconsumingsomuchanimalfood，inhabitantswouldcertainlyincrease，andmanyrichgrassfieldswouldbethrownintotillage。WeretheFrenchtogiveovereatingsomuchbread，theDutchsomuchthefish，theFlemishsomuchgardenstuff，andtheGermanssomuchsourkraut，andalltaketotheEnglishdietofpork，beef，andmutton，theirrespectivenumberswouldsoondecay，evenalthoughtheirlandswerebetterimprovedthanatpresent。Thesearebutreflections，by-the-bye，whichthereadermayenlargeuponatpleasure。Thepointinhandis，toknowwhataretheconsequencesofacountry’sbeingsopeopled，nomatterfromwhatcause，thatthesoil，initsactualstateoffertility，refusestosupplyasufficientquantityofsuchfoodastheinhabitantsinclinetoliveupon。Thesearedifferentaccordingtothediversityofspiritinthepeople。
Iftheybeofanindolentdisposition，directedintheirpoliticaloeconomybyestablishedhabitsandoldprejudices，whichpreventinnovations，althoughachangeofcircumstancesmaydemandthem，theeffectwillbetoputastoptopopulation；
whichcannotaugmentwithoutanincreaseoffoodononehand，andofindustryontheother，tomakethefirstcirculate。Thesemustgohandinhand:theprecedencebetweenthemisamatterofmerecuriosityandspeculation。
If，onthecontrary，aspiritofindustryhasbroughtthecountrytoacertaindegreeofpopulation，thisspiritwillnotbestoppedbythewantoffood；itwillbebroughtfromforeigncountries，andthisnewdemand，bydiminishingamongthemthequantityusuallyproducedfortheirownsubsistence，willprompttheindustrioustoimprovetheirlands，inordertosupplythenewdemandwithoutanyhurttothemselves。Thustradehasanevidenttendencytowardstheimprovementoftheworldingeneral，byrenderingtheinhabitantsofonecountryindustrious，inordertosupplythewantsofanother，withoutanyprejudicetothemselves。Farther:
Thecountryfullystockedcanofferinexchangeforthisfood，nothingbutthesuperfluityoftheindustryofthefreehands，forthatofthefarmersissupposedtobeconsumedbythesociety；exceptindeedsomespeciesofnourishmentorproductions，which，beingesteemedatahighervalueinothercountriesthaninthosewhichproducethem，bringamoreconsiderablereturnthanthevalueofwhatisexported，aswhenrawsilkanddelicatewines，&c。aregiveninexchangeforgrainandotherprovisions。
Thesuperfluityofindustrymust，therefore，formtheprincipalpartofexportation，andifthenationfullystockedbesurroundedbyotherswhichaboundingrainandarticlesofsubsistence，wheretheinhabitantshaveatasteforelegance，andareeagerofacquiringthemanufacturesandimprovementsoftheirindustriousneighbours；itiscertain，thatatradewithsuchnationswillveryconsiderablyincreasetheinhabitantsoftheother，thoughfullystockedrelativelytotheproductionoftheirownsoil；andtheadditionalinhabitantswillincreasethenumberofmanufacturersonly，notofhusbandmen。ThisisthecasewithHolland，andwithmanylargetradingcitieswhicharefreeandhavebutasmallterritory。
If，onthecontrary，thenationfullystockedbeintheneighbourhoodofotherswhotakethesamespiritasitself，thissupplyoffoodwillbecomeintimemoredifficulttobehad，inproportionastheirneighbourscometosupplytheirownwants。
Theymustthereforeseekforitatagreaterdistance，andassoonastheexpenceofprocuringitcomestoexceedthevalueofthelabourofthefreehandsemployedinproducingtheequivalent，theirworkwillceasetobeexported，andthenumberofinhabitantswillbediminishedtotheproportionoftheremainingfood。
Idonotsaythattradewillceaseonthisaccount；bynomeans。Trademaystillgoon，andevenbemoreconsiderablethanbefore；butitwillbeatradewhichnevercanincreaseinhabitants，becauseforthispurposetheremustbesubsistence。
Itmayhavehowevernumberlessandgreatadvantages:itmaygreatlyadvancethewealthofthestate，andthiswillpurchaseevenpowerandstrength。Atradingnationmayliveinprofoundpeaceathome，andsendwarandconfusionamongherenemies，withoutevenemployingherownsubjects。Thustrade，withoutincreasingtheinhabitantsofacountry，cangreatlyaddtoitsforce，byarmingthosehandswhichshehasnotbred，andemployingthemforherservice。