Therelativepositionofthecentralfederalpoweriscontinuallydisplaced。FortyyearsagothemajorityofthecitizensoftheUnionwasestablisheduponthecoastoftheAtlantic，intheenvironsofthespotuponwhichWashingtonnowstands;butthegreatbodyofthepeopleisnowadvancinginlandandtothenorth，sothatintwentyyearsthemajoritywillunquestionablybeonthewesternsideoftheAlleghanies。IftheUniongoesontosubsist，thebasinoftheMississippiisevidentlymarkedout，byitsfertilityanditsextent，asthefuturecentreoftheFederalGovernment。Inthirtyorfortyyears，thattractofcountrywillhaveassumedtherankwhichnaturallybelongstoit。Itiseasytocalculatethatitspopulation，comparedtothatofthecoastoftheAtlantic，willbe，inroundnumbers，as40to11。InafewyearstheStateswhichfoundedtheUnionwilllosethedirectionofitspolicy，andthepopulationofthevalleyoftheMississippiwillpreponderateinthefederalassemblies。
Thisconstantgravitationofthefederalpowerandinfluencetowardsthenorthwestisshowneverytenyears，whenageneralcensusofthepopulationismade，andthenumberofdelegateswhicheachStatesendstoCongressissettledafresh。*oIn1790
VirginiahadnineteenrepresentativesinCongress。Thisnumbercontinuedtoincreaseuntiltheyear1813，whenitreachedtotwenty—three;fromthattimeitbegantodecrease，andin1833
Virginiaelectedonlytwenty—onerepresentatives。*pDuringthesameperiodtheStateofNewYorkprogressedinthecontrarydirection:in1790ithadtenrepresentativesinCongress;in1813，twenty—seven;in1823，thirty—four;andin1833，forty。
TheStateofOhiohadonlyonerepresentativein1803，andin1833ithadalreadynineteen。
[Footnoteo:Itmaybeseenthatinthecourseofthelasttenyears（1820—1830）thepopulationofonedistrict，as，forinstance，theStateofDelaware，hasincreasedintheproportionoffivepercent。;whilstthatofanother，astheterritoryofMichigan，hasincreased250percent。ThusthepopulationofVirginiahadaugmentedthirteenpercent。，andthatoftheborderStateofOhiosixty—onepercent。，inthesamespaceoftime。
Thegeneraltableofthesechanges，whichisgiveninthe"NationalCalendar，"displaysastrikingpictureoftheunequalfortunesofthedifferentStates。]
[Footnotep:IthasjustbeensaidthatinthecourseofthelasttermthepopulationofVirginiahasincreasedthirteenpercent。;
anditisnecessarytoexplainhowthenumberofrepresentativesforaStatemaydecrease，whenthepopulationofthatState，farfromdiminishing，isactuallyupontheincrease。ItaketheStateofVirginia，towhichIhavealreadyalluded，asmytermofcomparison。ThenumberofrepresentativesofVirginiain1823
wasproportionatetothetotalnumberoftherepresentativesoftheUnion，andtotherelationwhichthepopulationboretothatofthewholeUnion:in1833thenumberofrepresentativesofVirginiawaslikewiseproportionatetothetotalnumberoftherepresentativesoftheUnion，andtotherelationwhichitspopulation，augmentedinthecourseoftenyears，boretotheaugmentedpopulationoftheUnioninthesamespaceoftime。ThenewnumberofVirginianrepresentativeswillthenbetotheoldnumver，ontheonehand，asthenewnumverofalltherepresentativesistotheoldnumber;and，ontheotherhand，astheaugmentationofthepopulationofVirginiaistothatofthewholepopulationofthecountry。Thus，iftheincreaseofthepopulationofthelessercountrybetothatofthegreaterinanexactinverseratiooftheproportionbetweenthenewandtheoldnumbersofalltherepresentatives，thenumberoftherepresentativesofVirginiawillremainstationary;andiftheincreaseoftheVirginianpopulationbetothatofthewholeUnioninafeeblerratiothanthenewnumberoftherepresentativesoftheUniontotheoldnumber，thenumberoftherepresentativesofVirginiamustdecrease。[Thus，tothe56thCongressin1899，VirginiaandWestVirginiasendonlyfourteenrepresentatives。]]
ChapterXVIII:FutureConditionOfThreeRaces—PartVIII
Itisdifficulttoimagineadurableunionofapeoplewhichisrichandstrongwithonewhichispoorandweak，evenifitwereprovedthatthestrengthandwealthoftheonearenotthecausesoftheweaknessandpovertyoftheother。Butunionisstillmoredifficulttomaintainatatimeatwhichonepartyislosingstrength，andtheotherisgainingit。ThisrapidanddisproportionateincreaseofcertainStatesthreatenstheindependenceoftheothers。NewYorkmightperhapssucceed，withits2，000，000ofinhabitantsanditsfortyrepresentatives，indictatingtotheotherStatesinCongress。ButevenifthemorepowerfulStatesmakenoattempttobeardownthelesserones，thedangerstillexists;forthereisalmostasmuchinthepossibilityoftheactasintheactitself。Theweakgenerallymistrustthejusticeandthereasonofthestrong。TheStateswhichincreaselessrapidlythantheotherslookuponthosewhicharemorefavoredbyfortunewithenvyandsuspicion。Hencearisethedeep—seateduneasinessandill—definedagitationwhichareobservableintheSouth，andwhichformsostrikingacontrasttotheconfidenceandprosperitywhicharecommontootherpartsoftheUnion。IaminclinedtothinkthatthehostilemeasurestakenbytheSouthernprovincesuponarecentoccasionareattributabletonoothercause。TheinhabitantsoftheSouthernStatesare，ofalltheAmericans，thosewhoaremostinterestedinthemaintenanceoftheUnion;theywouldassuredlysuffermostfrombeinglefttothemselves;andyettheyaretheonlycitizenswhothreatentobreakthetieofconfederation。ButitiseasytoperceivethattheSouth，whichhasgivenfourPresidents，Washington，Jefferson，Madison，andMonroe，totheUnion，whichperceivesthatitislosingitsfederalinfluence，andthatthenumberofitsrepresentativesinCongressisdiminishingfromyeartoyear，whilstthoseoftheNorthernandWesternStatesareincreasing;theSouth，whichispeopledwithardentandirasciblebeings，isbecomingmoreandmoreirritatedandalarmed。Thecitizensreflectupontheirpresentpositionandremembertheirpastinfluence，withthemelancholyuneasinessofmenwhosuspectoppression:iftheydiscoveralawoftheUnionwhichisnotunequivocallyfavorabletotheirinterests，theyprotestagainstitasanabuseofforce;andiftheirardentremonstrancesarenotlistenedto，theythreatentoquitanassociationwhichloadsthemwithburdenswhilstitdeprivesthemoftheirdueprofits。
"Thetariff，"saidtheinhabitantsofCarolinain1832，"enrichestheNorth，andruinstheSouth;forifthiswerenotthecase，towhatcanweattributethecontinuallyincreasingpowerandwealthoftheNorth，withitsinclementskiesandaridsoil;whilsttheSouth，whichmaybestyledthegardenofAmerica，israpidlydeclining？"*q[Footnoteq:SeethereportofitscommitteetotheConventionwhichproclaimedthenullificationofthetariffinSouthCarolina。]
IfthechangeswhichIhavedescribedweregradual，sothateachgenerationatleastmighthavetimetodisappearwiththeorderofthingsunderwhichithadlived，thedangerwouldbeless;buttheprogressofsocietyinAmericaisprecipitate，andalmostrevolutionary。ThesamecitizenmayhavelivedtoseehisStatetaketheleadintheUnion，andafterwardsbecomepowerlessinthefederalassemblies;andanAnglo—Americanrepublichasbeenknowntogrowasrapidlyasamanpassingfrombirthandinfancytomaturityinthecourseofthirtyyears。Itmustnotbeimagined，however，thattheStateswhichlosetheirpreponderance，alsolosetheirpopulationortheirriches:nostopisputtotheirprosperity，andtheyevengoontoincreasemorerapidlythananykingdominEurope。*rButtheybelievethemselvestobeimpoverishedbecausetheirwealthdoesnotaugmentasrapidlyasthatoftheirneighbors;anytheythinkthattheirpowerislost，becausetheysuddenlycomeintocollisionwithapowergreaterthantheirown:*sthustheyaremorehurtintheirfeelingsandtheirpassionsthanintheirinterests。ButthisisamplysufficienttoendangerthemaintenanceoftheUnion。Ifkingsandpeopleshadonlyhadtheirtrueinterestsinvieweversincethebeginningoftheworld，thenameofwarwouldscarcelybeknownamongmankind。
[Footnoter:Thepopulationofacountryassuredlyconstitutesthefirstelementofitswealth。Inthetenyears（1820—1830）
duringwhichVirginialosttwoofitsrepresentativesinCongress，itspopulationincreasedintheproportionof13。7percent。;thatofCarolinaintheproportionoffifteenpercent。;
andthatofGeorgia，15。5percent。（Seethe"AmericanAlmanac，"
1832，p。162）ButthepopulationofRussia，whichincreasesmorerapidlythanthatofanyotherEuropeancountry，onlyaugmentsintenyearsattherateof9。5percent。;inFrance，attherateofsevenpercent。;andinEuropeingeneral，attherateof4。7percent。（See"MalteBrun，"vol。vi。p。95）]
[Footnotes:Itmustbeadmitted，however，thatthedepreciationwhichhastakenplaceinthevalueoftobacco，duringthelastfiftyyears，hasnotablydiminishedtheopulenceoftheSouthernplanters:butthiscircumstanceisasindependentofthewilloftheirNorthernbrethrenasitisoftheirown。]
ThustheprosperityoftheUnitedStatesisthesourceofthemostseriousdangersthatthreatenthem，sinceittendstocreateinsomeoftheconfederateStatesthatover—excitementwhichaccompaniesarapidincreaseoffortune;andtoawakeninothersthosefeelingsofenvy，mistrust，andregretwhichusuallyattenduponthelossofit。TheAmericanscontemplatethisextraordinaryandhastyprogresswithexultation;buttheywouldbewisertoconsideritwithsorrowandalarm。TheAmericansoftheUnitedStatesmustinevitablybecomeoneofthegreatestnationsintheworld;theiroffsetwillcoveralmostthewholeofNorthAmerica;thecontinentwhichtheyinhabitistheirdominion，anditcannotescapethem。Whaturgesthemtotakepossessionofitsosoon？Riches，power，andrenowncannotfailtobetheirsatsomefuturetime，buttheyrushupontheirfortuneasifbutamomentremainedforthemtomakeittheirown。
IthinkthatIhavedemonstratedthattheexistenceofthepresentconfederationdependsentirelyonthecontinuedassentofalltheconfederates;and，startingfromthisprinciple，IhaveinquiredintothecauseswhichmayinducetheseveralStatestoseparatefromtheothers。TheUnionmay，however，perishintwodifferentways:oneoftheconfederateStatesmaychoosetoretirefromthecompact，andsoforciblytoseverthefederaltie;anditistothissuppositionthatmostoftheremarksthatIhavemadeapply:ortheauthorityoftheFederalGovernmentmaybeprogressivelyentrenchedonbythesimultaneoustendencyoftheunitedrepublicstoresumetheirindependence。T...完整阅读请扫描二维码下载丁香书院APP免费看：
第34章