ANESSAYONTHEPRINCIPLEOFPOPULATION，ASITAFFECTSTHEFUTURE
　　IMPROVEMENTOFSOCIETYWITHREMARKSONTHESPECULATIONSOFMR。
　　GODWIN，M。CONDORCET，ANDOTHERWRITERS。
　　LONDON，PRINTEDFORJ。JOHNSON，INST。PAUL’SCHURCH—YARD，1798。
　　PrefaceTHEfollowingEssayowesitsorigintoaconversationwithafriend，onthesubjectofMrGodwin’sessayon’AvariceandProfusion’inhisEnquirer。Thediscussionstartedthegeneralquestionofthefutureimprovementofsociety。andtheAuthoratfirstsatdownwithanintentionofmerelystatinghisthoughtstohisfriend，uponpaper，inaclearermannerthanhethoughthecoulddoinconversation。Butasthesubjectopeneduponhim，someideasoccurred，whichhedidnotrecollecttohavemetwithbefore;andasheconceivedthateveryleastlight，onatopicsogenerallyinteresting，mightbereceivedwithcandour，hedeterminedtoputhisthoughtsinaformforpublication。
　　TheEssaymight，undoubtedly，havebeenrenderedmuchmorecompletebyacollectionofagreaternumberoffactsinelucidationofthegeneralargument。Butalongandalmosttotalinterruptionfromveryparticularbusiness，joinedtoadesire（perhapsimprudent）ofnotdelayingthepublicationmuchbeyondthetimethatheoriginallyproposed，preventedtheAuthorfromgivingtothesubjectanundividedattention。Hepresumes，however，thatthefactswhichhehasadducedwillbefoundtoformnoinconsiderableevidenceforthetruthofhisopinionrespectingthefutureimprovementofmankind。AstheAuthorcontemplatesthisopinionatpresent，littlemoreappearstohimtobenecessarythanaplainstatement，inadditiontothemostcursoryviewofsociety，toestablishit。
　　Itisanobvioustruth，whichhasbeentakennoticeofbymanywriters，thatpopulationmustalwaysbekeptdowntothelevelofthemeansofsubsistence;butnowriterthattheAuthorrecollectshasinquiredparticularlyintothemeansbywhichthisleveliseffected：anditisaviewofthesemeanswhichforms，tohismind，thestrongestobstacleinthewaytoanyverygreatfutureimprovementofsociety。Hehopesitwillappearthat，inthediscussionofthisinterestingsubject，heisactuatedsolelybyaloveoftruth，andnotbyanyprejudicesagainstanyparticularsetofmen，orofopinions。Heprofessestohavereadsomeofthespeculationsonthefutureimprovementofsocietyinatemperverydifferentfromawishtofindthemvisionary，buthehasnotacquiredthatcommandoverhisunderstandingwhichwouldenablehimtobelievewhathewishes，withoutevidence，ortorefusehisassenttowhatmightbeunpleasing，whenaccompaniedwithevidence。
　　Theviewwhichhehasgivenofhumanlifehasamelancholyhue，buthefeelsconsciousthathehasdrawnthesedarktintsfromaconvictionthattheyarereallyinthepicture，andnotfromajaundicedeyeoraninherentspleenofdisposition。Thetheoryofmindwhichhehassketchedinthetwolastchaptersaccountstohisownunderstandinginasatisfactorymannerfortheexistenceofmostoftheevilsoflife，butwhetheritwillhavethesameeffectuponothersmustbelefttothejudgementofhisreaders。
　　Ifheshouldsucceedindrawingtheattentionofmoreablementowhatheconceivestobetheprincipaldifficultyinthewaytotheimprovementofsocietyandshould，inconsequence，seethisdifficultyremoved，evenintheory，hewillgladlyretracthispresentopinionsandrejoiceinaconvictionofhiserror。
　　7June1798
　　CHAPTER1
　　Questionstated—Littleprospectofadeterminationofit，fromtheenmityoftheopposingparties—Theprincipalargumentagainsttheperfectibilityofmanandofsocietyhasneverbeenfairlyanswered—Natureofthedifficultyarisingfrompopulation—OutlineoftheprincipalargumentoftheEssayTHEgreatandunlookedfordiscoveriesthathavetakenplaceoflateyearsinnaturalphilosophy，theincreasingdiffusionofgeneralknowledgefromtheextensionoftheartofprinting，theardentandunshackledspiritofinquirythatprevailsthroughouttheletteredandevenunletteredworld，thenewandextraordinarylightsthathavebeenthrownonpoliticalsubjectswhichdazzleandastonishtheunderstanding，andparticularlythattremendousphenomenoninthepoliticalhorizon，theFrenchRevolution，which，likeablazingcomet，seemsdestinedeithertoinspirewithfreshlifeandvigour，ortoscorchupanddestroytheshrinkinginhabitantsoftheearth，haveallconcurredtoleadmanyablemenintotheopinionthatweweretouchingonaperiodbigwiththemostimportantchanges，changesthatwouldinsomemeasurebedecisiveofthefuturefateofmankind。
　　Ithasbeensaidthatthegreatquestionisnowatissue，whethermanshallhenceforthstartforwardswithacceleratedvelocitytowardsillimitable，andhithertounconceivedimprovement，orbecondemnedtoaperpetualoscillationbetweenhappinessandmisery，andaftereveryeffortremainstillatanimmeasurabledistancefromthewished—forgoal。
　　Yet，anxiouslyaseveryfriendofmankindmustlookforwardstotheterminationofthispainfulsuspense，andeagerlyastheinquiringmindwouldhaileveryrayoflightthatmightassistitsviewintofuturity，itismuchtobelamentedthatthewritersoneachsideofthismomentousquestionstillkeepfaralooffromeachother。Theirmutualargumentsdonotmeetwithacandidexamination。Thequestionisnotbroughttorestonfewerpoints，andevenintheoryscarcelyseemstobeapproachingtoadecision。
　　Theadvocateforthepresentorderofthingsisapttotreatthesectofspeculativephilosopherseitherasasetofartfulanddesigningknaveswhopreachupardentbenevolenceanddrawcaptivatingpicturesofahappierstateofsocietyonlythebettertoenablethemtodestroythepresentestablishmentsandtoforwardtheirowndeep—laidschemesofambition，oraswildandmad—headedenthusiastswhosesillyspeculationsandabsurdparadoxesarenotworthytheattentionofanyreasonableman。
　　Theadvocatefortheperfectibilityofman，andofsociety，retortsonthedefenderofestablishmentsamorethanequalcontempt。Hebrandshimastheslaveofthemostmiserableandnarrowprejudices;orasthedefenderoftheabuses。ofcivilsocietyonlybecauseheprofitsbythem。Hepaintshimeitherasacharacterwhoprostituteshisunderstandingtohisinterest，orasonewhosepowersofmindarenotofasizetograspanythinggreatandnoble，whocannotseeabovefiveyardsbeforehim，andwhomustthereforebeutterlyunabletotakeintheviewsoftheenlightenedbenefactorofmankind。
　　Inthisunamicablecontestthecauseoftruthcannotbutsuffer。Thereallygoodargumentsoneachsideofthequestionarenotallowedtohavetheirproperweight。Eachpursueshisowntheory，littlesolicitoustocorrectorimproveitbyanattentiontowhatisadvancedbyhisopponents。
　　Thefriendofthepresentorderofthingscondemnsallpoliticalspeculationsinthegross。Hewillnotevencondescendtoexaminethegroundsfromwhichtheperfectibilityofsocietyisinferred。Muchlesswillhegivehimselfthetroubleinafairandcandidmannertoattemptanexpositionoftheirfallacy。
　　Thespeculativephilosopherequallyoffendsagainstthecauseoftruth。Witheyesfixedonahappierstateofsociety，theblessingsofwhichhepaintsinthemostcaptivatingcolours，heallowshimselftoindulgeinthemostbitterinvectivesagainsteverypresentestablishment，withoutapplyinghistalentstoconsiderthebestandsafestmeansofremovingabusesandwithoutseemingtobeawareofthetremendousobstaclesthatthreaten，evenintheory，toopposetheprogressofmantowardsperfection。
　　Itisanacknowledgedtruthinphilosophythatajusttheorywillalwaysbeconfirmedbyexperiment。Yetsomuchfriction，andsomanyminutecircumstancesoccurinpractice，whichitisnexttoimpossibleforthemostenlargedandpenetratingmindtoforesee，thatonfewsubjectscananytheorybepronouncedjust，tillalltheargumentsagainstithavebeenmaturelyweighedandclearlyandconsistentlyrefuted。
　　Ihavereadsomeofthespeculationsontheperfectibilityofmanandofsocietywithgreatpleasure。Ihavebeenwarmedanddelightedwiththeenchantingpicturewhichtheyholdforth。I
　　ardentlywishforsuchhappyimprovements。ButIseegreat，and，tomyunderstanding，unconquerabledifficultiesinthewaytothem。Thesedifficultiesitismypresentpurposetostate，declaring，atthesametime，thatsofarfromexultinginthem，asacauseoftriumphoverthefriendsofinnovation，nothingwouldgivemegreaterpleasurethantoseethemcompletelyremoved。
　　ThemostimportantargumentthatIshalladduceiscertainlynotnew。TheprinciplesonwhichitdependshavebeenexplainedinpartbyHume，andmoreatlargebyDrAdamSmith。Ithasbeenadvancedandappliedtothepresentsubject，thoughnotwithitsproperweight，orinthemostforciblepointofview，byMrWallace，anditmayprobablyhavebeenstatedbymanywritersthatIhavenevermetwith。Ishouldcertainlythereforenotthinkofadvancingitagain，thoughImeantoplaceitinapointofviewinsomedegreedifferentfromanythatIhavehithertoseen，ifithadeverbeenfairlyandsatisfactorilyanswered。
　　Thecauseofthisneglectonthepartoftheadvocatesfortheperfectibilityofmankindisnoteasilyaccountedfor。I
　　cannotdoubtthetalentsofsuchmenasGodwinandCondorcet。I
　　amunwillingtodoubttheircandour。Tomyunderstanding，andprobablytothatofmostothers，thedifficultyappearsinsurmountable。Yetthesemenofacknowledgedabilityandpenetrationscarcelydeigntonoticeit，andholdontheircourseinsuchspeculationswithunabatedardourandundiminishedconfidence。Ihavecertainlynorighttosaythattheypurposelyshuttheireyestosucharguments。Ioughtrathertodoubtthevalidityofthem，whenneglectedbysuchmen，howeverforciblytheirtruthmaystrikemyownmind。Yetinthisrespectitmustbeacknowledgedthatweareallofustoopronetoerr。IfIsawaglassofwinerepeatedlypresentedtoaman，andhetooknonoticeofit，Ishouldbeapttothinkthathewasblindoruncivil。AjusterphilosophymightteachmerathertothinkthatmyeyesdeceivedmeandthattheofferwasnotreallywhatI
　　conceivedittobe。
　　InenteringupontheargumentImustpremisethatIputoutofthequestion，atpresent，allmereconjectures，thatis，allsuppositions，theprobablerealizationofwhichcannotbeinferreduponanyjustphilosophicalgrounds。Awritermaytellmethathethinksmanwillultimatelybecomeanostrich。Icannotproperlycontradicthim。Butbeforehecanexpecttobringanyreasonablepersonovertohisopinion，heoughttoshewthatthenecksofmankindhavebeengraduallyelongating，thatthelipshavegrownharderandmoreprominent，thatthelegsandfeetaredailyalteringtheirshape，andthatthehairisbeginningtochangeintostubsoffeathers。Andtilltheprobabilityofsowonderfulaconversioncanbeshewn，itissurelylosttimeandlosteloquencetoexpatiateonthehappinessofmaninsuchastate;todescribehispowers，bothofrunningandflying，topainthiminaconditionwhereallnarrowluxurieswouldbecontemned，wherehewouldbeemployedonlyincollectingthenecessariesoflife，andwhere，consequently，eachman’sshareoflabourwouldbelight，andhisportionofleisureample。
　　IthinkImayfairlymaketwopostulata。
　　First，Thatfoodisnecessarytotheexistenceofman。
　　Secondly，Thatthepassionbetweenthesexesisnecessaryandwillremainnearlyinitspresentstate。
　　Thesetwolaws，eversincewehavehadanyknowledgeofmankind，appeartohavebeenfixedlawsofournature，and，aswehavenothithertoseenanyalterationinthem，wehavenorighttoconcludethattheywilleverceasetobewhattheynoware，withoutanimmediateactofpowerinthatBeingwhofirstarrangedthesystemoftheuniverse，andfortheadvantageofhiscreatures，stillexecutes，accordingtofixedlaws，allitsvariousoperations。
　　Idonotknowthatanywriterhassupposedthatonthisearthmanwillultimatelybeabletolivewithoutfood。ButMrGodwinhasconjecturedthatthepassionbetweenthesexesmayintimebeextinguished。As，however，hecallsthispartofhisworkadeviationintothelandofconjecture，Iwillnotdwelllongeruponitatpresentthantosaythatthebestargumentsfortheperfectibilityofmanaredrawnfromacontemplationofthegreatprogressthathehasalreadymadefromthesavagestateandthedifficultyofsayingwhereheistostop。Buttowardstheextinctionofthepassionbetweenthesexes，noprogresswhateverhashithertobeenmade。Itappearstoexistinasmuchforceatpresentasitdidtwothousandorfourthousandyearsago。Thereareindividualexceptionsnowastherealwayshavebeen。But，astheseexceptionsdonotappeartoincreaseinnumber，itwouldsurelybeaveryunphilosophicalmodeofarguingtoinfer，merelyfromtheexistenceofanexception，thattheexceptionwould，intime，becometherule，andtheruletheexception。
　　Assumingthenmypostulataasgranted，Isay，thatthepowerofpopulationisindefinitelygreaterthanthepowerintheearthtoproducesubsistenceforman。
　　Population，whenunchecked，increasesinageometricalratio。
　　Subsistenceincreasesonlyinanarithmeticalratio。Aslightacquaintancewithnumberswillshewtheimmensityofthefirstpowerincomparisonofthesecond。
　　Bythatlawofournaturewhichmakesfoodnecessarytothelifeofman，theeffectsofthesetwounequalpowersmustbekeptequal。
　　Thisimpliesastrongandconstantlyoperatingcheckonpopulationfromthedifficultyofsubsistence。Thisdifficultymustfallsomewhereandmustnecessarilybeseverelyfeltbyalargeportionofmankind。
　　Throughtheanimalandvegetablekingdoms，naturehasscatteredtheseedsoflifeabroadwiththemostprofuseandliberalhand。Shehasbeencomparativelysparingintheroomandthenourishmentnecessarytorearthem。Thegermsofexistencecontainedinthisspotofearth，withamplefood，andampleroomtoexpandin，wouldfillmillionsofworldsinthecourseofafewthousandyears。Necessity，thatimperiousallpervadinglawofnature，restrainsthemwithintheprescribedbounds。Theraceofplantsandtheraceofanimalsshrinkunderthisgreatrestrictivelaw。Andtheraceofmancannot，byanyeffortsofreason，escapefromit。Amongplantsandanimalsitseffectsarewasteofseed，sickness，andprematuredeath。Amongmankind，miseryandvice。Theformer，misery，isanabsolutelynecessaryconsequenceofit。Viceisahighlyprobableconsequence，andwethereforeseeitabundantlyprevail，butitoughtnot，perhaps，tobecalledanabsolutelynecessaryconsequence。Theordealofvirtueistoresistalltemptationtoevil。
　　Thisnaturalinequalityofthetwopowersofpopulationandofproductionintheearth，andthatgreatlawofournaturewhichmustconstantlykeeptheireffectsequal，formthegreatdifficultythattomeappearsinsurmountableinthewaytotheperfectibilityofsociety。Allotherargumentsareofslightandsubordinateconsiderationincomparisonofthis。Iseenowaybywhichmancanescapefromtheweightofthislawwhichpervadesallanimatednature。Nofanciedequality，noagrarianregulationsintheirutmostextent，couldremovethepressureofitevenforasinglecentury。Anditappears，therefore，tobedecisiveagainstthepossibleexistenceofasociety，allthemembersofwhichshouldliveinease，happiness，andcomparativeleisure;
　　andfeelnoanxietyaboutprovidingthemeansofsubsistenceforthemselvesandfamilies。
　　Consequently，ifthepremisesarejust，theargumentisconclusiveagainsttheperfectibilityofthemassofmankind。
　　Ihavethussketchedthegeneraloutlineoftheargument，butIwillexamineitmoreparticularly，andIthinkitwillbefoundthatexperience，thetruesourceandfoundationofallknowledge，invariablyconfirmsitstruth。
　　CHAPTER2
　　Thedifferentratioinwhichpopulationandfoodincrease—Thenecessaryeffectsofthesedifferentratiosofincrease—
　　Oscillationproducedbythemintheconditionofthelowerclassesofsociety—Reasonswhythisoscillationhasnotbeensomuchobservedasmightbeexpected—ThreepropositionsonwhichthegeneralargumentoftheEssaydepends——Thedifferentstatesinwhichmankindhavebeenknowntoexistproposedtobeexaminedwithreferencetothesethreepropositions。
　　ISAIDthatpopulation，whenunchecked，increasedinageometricalratio，andsubsistenceformaninanarithmeticalratio。
　　Letusexaminewhetherthispositionbejust。Ithinkitwillbeallowed，thatnostatehashithertoexisted（atleastthatwehaveanyaccountof）wherethemannersweresopureandsimple，andthemeansofsubsistencesoabundant，thatnocheckwhateverhasexistedtoearlymarriages，amongthelowerclasses，fromafearofnotprovidingwellfortheirfamilies，oramongthehigherclasses，fromafearofloweringtheirconditioninlife。
　　Consequentlyinnostatethatwehaveyetknownhasthepowerofpopulationbeenlefttoexertitselfwithperfectfreedom。
　　Whetherthelawofmarriagebeinstitutedornot，thedictateofnatureandvirtueseemstobeanearlyattachmenttoonewoman。Supposingalibertyofchanginginthecaseofanunfortunatechoice，thislibertywouldnotaffectpopulationtillitarosetoaheightgreatlyvicious;andwearenowsupposingtheexistenceofasocietywhereviceisscarcelyknown。
　　Inastatethereforeofgreatequalityandvirtue，wherepureandsimplemannersprevailed，andwherethemeansofsubsistenceweresoabundantthatnopartofthesocietycouldhaveanyfearsaboutprovidingamplyforafamily，thepowerofpopulationbeinglefttoexertitselfunchecked，theincreaseofthehumanspecieswouldevidentlybemuchgreaterthananyincreasethathasbeenhithertoknown。
　　IntheUnitedStatesofAmerica，wherethemeansofsubsistencehavebeenmoreample，themannersofthepeoplemorepure，andconsequentlythecheckstoearlymarriagesfewer，thaninanyofthemodernstatesofEurope，thepopulationhasbeenfoundtodoubleitselfintwenty—fiveyears。
　　Thisratioofincrease，thoughshortoftheutmostpowerofpopulation，yetastheresultofactualexperience，wewilltakeasourrule，andsay，thatpopulation，whenunchecked，goesondoublingitselfeverytwenty—fiveyearsorincreasesinageometricalratio。
　　Letusnowtakeanyspotofearth，thisIslandforinstance，andseeinwhatratiothesubsistenceitaffordscanbesupposedtoincrease。Wewillbeginwithitunderitspresentstateofcultivation。
　　IfIallowthatbythebestpossiblepolicy，bybreakingupmorelandandbygreatencouragementstoagriculture，theproduceofthisIslandmaybedoubledinthefirsttwenty—fiveyears，I
　　thinkitwillbeallowingasmuchasanypersoncanwelldemand。
　　Inthenexttwenty—fiveyears，itisimpossibletosupposethattheproducecouldbequadrupled。Itwouldbecontrarytoallourknowledgeofthequalitiesofland。Theveryutmostthatwecanconceive，is，thattheincreaseinthesecondtwenty—fiveyearsmightequalthepresentproduce。Letusthentakethisforourrule，thoughcertainlyfarbeyondthetruth，andallowthat，bygreatexertion，thewholeproduceoftheIslandmightbeincreasedeverytwenty—fiveyears，byaquantityofsubsistenceequaltowhatitatpresentproduces。Themostenthusiasticspeculatorcannotsupposeagreaterincreasethanthis。InafewcenturiesitwouldmakeeveryacreoflandintheIslandlikeagarden。
　　Yetthisratioofincreaseisevidentlyarithmetical。
　　Itmaybefairlysaid，therefore，thatthemeansofsubsistenceincreaseinanarithmeticalratio。Letusnowbringtheeffectsofthesetworatiostogether。
　　ThepopulationoftheIslandiscomputedtobeaboutsevenmillions，andwewillsupposethepresentproduceequaltothesupportofsuchanumber。Inthefirsttwenty—fiveyearsthepopulationwouldbefourteenmillions，andthefoodbeingalsodoubled，themeansofsubsistencewouldbeequaltothisincrease。Inthenexttwenty—fiveyearsthepopulationwouldbetwenty—eightmillions，andthemeansofsubsistenceonlyequaltothesupportoftwenty—onemillions。Inthenextperiod，thepopulationwouldbefifty—sixmillions，andthemeansofsubsistencejustsufficientforhalfthatnumber。Andattheconclusionofthefirstcenturythepopulationwouldbeonehundredandtwelvemillionsandthemeansofsubsistenceonlyequaltothesupportofthirty—fivemillions，whichwouldleaveapopulationofseventy—sevenmillionstotallyunprovidedfor。
　　Agreatemigrationnecessarilyimpliesunhappinessofsomekindorotherinthecountrythatisdeserted。Forfewpersonswillleavetheirfamilies，connections，friends，andnativeland，toseekasettlementinuntriedforeignclimes，withoutsomestrongsubsistingcausesofuneasinesswheretheyare，orthehopeofsomegreatadvantagesintheplacetowhichtheyaregoing。
　　Buttomaketheargumentmoregeneralandlessinterruptedbythepartialviewsofemigration，letustakethewholeearth，insteadofonespot，andsupposethattherestraintstopopulationwereuniversallyremoved。Ifthesubsistenceformanthattheearthaffordswastobeincreasedeverytwenty—fiveyearsbyaquantityequaltowhatthewholeworldatpresentproduces，thiswouldallowthepowerofproductionintheearthtobeabsolutelyunlimited，anditsratioofincreasemuchgreaterthanwecanconceivethatanypossibleexertionsofmankindcouldmakeit。
　　Takingthepopulationoftheworldatanynumber，athousandmillions，forinstance，thehumanspecieswouldincreaseintheratioof——1，2，4，8，16，32，64，128，256，512，etc。andsubsistenceas——1，2，3，4，5，6，7，8，9，10，etc。Intwocenturiesandaquarter，thepopulationwouldbetothemeansofsubsistenceas512to10：inthreecenturiesas4096to13，andintwothousandyearsthedifferencewouldbealmostincalculable，thoughtheproduceinthattimewouldhaveincreasedtoanimmenseextent。
　　Nolimitswhateverareplacedtotheproductionsoftheearth;theymayincreaseforeverandbegreaterthananyassignablequantity。yetstillthepowerofpopulationbeingapowerofasuperiororder，theincreaseofthehumanspeciescanonlybekeptcommensuratetotheincreaseofthemeansofsubsistencebytheconstantoperationofthestronglawofnecessityactingasacheckuponthegreaterpower。
　　Theeffectsofthischeckremainnowtobeconsidered。
　　Amongplantsandanimalstheviewofthesubjectissimple。
　　Theyareallimpelledbyapowerfulinstincttotheincreaseoftheirspecies，andthisinstinctisinterruptedbynoreasoningordoubtsaboutprovidingfortheiroffspring。Whereverthereforethereisliberty，thepowerofincreaseisexerted，andthesuperabundanteffectsarerepressedafterwardsbywantofroomandnourishment，whichiscommontoanimalsandplants，andamonganimalsbybecomingthepreyofothers。
　　Theeffectsofthischeckonmanaremorecomplicated。
　　Impelledtotheincreaseofhisspeciesbyanequallypowerfulinstinct，reasoninterruptshiscareerandaskshimwhetherhemaynotbringbeingsintotheworldforwhomhecannotprovidethemeansofsubsistence。Inastateofequality，thiswouldbethesimplequestion。Inthepresentstateofsociety，otherconsiderationsoccur。Willhenotlowerhisrankinlife？Willhenotsubjecthimselftogreaterdifficultiesthanheatpresentfeels？Willhenotbeobligedtolabourharder？andifhehasalargefamily，willhisutmostexertionsenablehimtosupportthem？Mayhenotseehisoffspringinragsandmisery，andclamouringforbreadthathecannotgivethem？Andmayhenotbereducedtothegratingnecessityofforfeitinghisindependence，andofbeingobligedtothesparinghandofcharityforsupport？
　　Theseconsiderationsarecalculatedtoprevent，andcertainlydoprevent，averygreatnumberinallcivilizednationsfrompursuingthedictateofnatureinanearlyattachmenttoonewoman。Andthisrestraintalmostnecessarily，thoughnotabsolutelyso，producesvice。Yetinallsocieties，eventhosethataremostvicious，thetendencytoavirtuousattachmentissostrongthatthereisaconstantefforttowardsanincreaseofpopulation。Thisconstanteffortasconstantlytendstosubjectthelowerclassesofthesocietytodistressandtopreventanygreatpermanentameliorationoftheircondition。
　　Thewayinwhich，theseeffectsareproducedseemstobethis。Wewillsupposethemeansofsubsistenceinanycountryjustequaltotheeasysupportofitsinhabitants。Theconstantefforttowardspopulation，whichisfoundtoacteveninthemostvicioussocieties，increasesthenumberofpeoplebeforethemeansofsubsistenceareincreased。Thefoodthereforewhichbeforesupportedsevenmillionsmustnowbedividedamongsevenmillionsandahalforeightmillions。Thepoorconsequentlymustlivemuchworse，andmanyofthembereducedtoseveredistress。
　　Thenumberoflabourersalsobeingabovetheproportionoftheworkinthemarket，thepriceoflabourmusttendtowardadecrease，whilethepriceofprovisionswouldatthesametimetendtorise。Thelabourerthereforemustworkhardertoearnthesameashedidbefore。Duringthisseasonofdistress，thediscouragementstomarriage，andthedifficultyofrearingafamilyaresogreatthatpopulationisatastand。Inthemeantimethecheapnessoflabour，theplentyoflabourers，andthenecessityofanincreasedindustryamongstthem，encouragecultivatorstoemploymorelabourupontheirland，toturnupfreshsoil，andtomanureandimprovemorecompletelywhatisalreadyintillage，tillultimatelythemeansofsubsistencebecomeinthesameproportiontothepopulationasattheperiodfromwhichwesetout。Thesituationofthelabourerbeingthenagaintolerablycomfortable，therestraintstopopulationareinsomedegreeloosened，andthesameretrogradeandprogressivemovementswithrespecttohappinessarerepeated。
　　Thissortofoscillationwillnotberemarkedbysuperficialobservers，anditmaybedifficultevenforthemostpenetratingmindtocalculateitsperiods。Yetthatinalloldstatessomesuchvibrationdoesexist，thoughfromvarioustransversecauses，inamuchlessmarked，andinamuchmoreirregularmannerthanI
　　havedescribedit，noreflectingmanwhoconsidersthesubjectdeeplycanwelldoubt。
　　Manyreasonsoccurwhythisoscillationhasbeenlessobvious，andlessdecidedlyconfirmedbyexperience，thanmightnaturallybeexpected。
　　Oneprincipalreasonisthatthehistoriesofmankindthatwepossessarehistoriesonlyofthehigherclasses。Wehavebutfewaccountsthatcanbedependeduponofthemannersandcustomsofthatpartofmankindwheretheseretrogradeandprogressivemovementschieflytakeplace。Asatisfactoryhistoryofthiskind，ononepeople，andofoneperiod，wouldrequiretheconstantandminuteattentionofanobservingmindduringalonglife。Someoftheobjectsofinquirywouldbe，inwhatproportiontothenumberofadultswasthenumberofmarriages，towhatextentviciouscustomsprevailedinconsequenceoftherestraintsuponmatrimony，whatwasthecomparativemortalityamongthechildrenofthemostdistressedpartofthecommunityandthosewholivedrathermoreattheirease，whatwerethevariationsintherealpriceoflabour，andwhatweretheobservabledifferencesinthestateofthelowerclassesofsocietywithrespecttoeaseandhappiness，atdifferenttimesduringacertainperiod。
　　Suchahistorywouldtendgreatlytoelucidatethemannerinwhichtheconstantcheckuponpopulationactsandwouldprobablyprovetheexistenceoftheretrogradeandprogressivemovementsthathavebeenmentioned，thoughthetimesoftheirvibrationsmustnecessarilyberenderedirregularfromtheoperationofmanyinterruptingcauses，suchastheintroductionorfailureofcertainmanufactures，agreaterorlessprevalentspiritofagriculturalenterprise，yearsofplenty，oryearsofscarcity，warsandpestilence，poorlaws，theinventionofprocessesforshorteninglabourwithouttheproportionalextensionofthemarketforthecommodity，and，particularly，thedifferencebetweenthenominalandrealpriceoflabour，acircumstancewhichhasperhapsmorethananyothercontributedtoconcealthisoscillationfromcommonview。
　　Itveryrarelyhappensthatthenominalpriceoflabouruniversallyfalls，butwewellknowthatitfrequentlyremainsthesame，whilethenominalpriceofprovisionshasbeengraduallyincreasing。Thisis，ineffect，arealfallinthepriceoflabour，andduringthisperiodtheconditionofthelowerordersofthecommunitymustgraduallygrowworseandworse。Butthefarmersandcapitalistsaregrowingrichfromtherealcheapnessoflabour。Theirincreasedcapitalsenablethemtoemployagreaternumberofmen。Workthereforemaybeplentiful，andthepriceoflabourwouldconsequentlyrise。Butthewantoffreedominthemarketoflabour，whichoccursmoreorlessinallcommunities，eitherfromparishlaws，orthemoregeneralcauseofthefacilityofcombinationamongtherich，anditsdifficultyamongthepoor，operatestopreventthepriceoflabourfromrisingatthenaturalperiod，andkeepsitdownsometimelonger;
　　perhapstillayearofscarcity，whentheclamouristooloudandthenecessitytooapparenttoberesisted。
　　Thetruecauseoftheadvanceinthepriceoflabouristhusconcealed，andtherichaffecttograntitasanactofcompassionandfavourtothepoor，inconsiderationofayearofscarcity，and，whenplentyreturns，indulgethemselvesinthemostunreasonableofallcomplaints，thatthepricedoesnotagainfall，whenalittlerejectionwouldshewthemthatitmusthaverisenlongbeforebutfromanunjustconspiracyoftheirown。
　　Butthoughtherichbyunfaircombinationscontributefrequentlytoprolongaseasonofdistressamongthepoor，yetnopossibleformofsocietycouldpreventthealmostconstantactionofmiseryuponagreatpartofmankind，ifinastateofinequality，anduponall，ifallwereequal。
　　ThetheoryonwhichthetruthofthispositiondependsappearstomesoextremelyclearthatIfeelatalosstoconjecturewhatpartofitcanbedenied。
　　Thatpopulationcannotincreasewithoutthemeansofsubsistenceisapropositionsoevidentthatitneedsnoillustration。
　　Thatpopulationdoesinvariablyincreasewheretherearethemeansofsubsistence，thehistoryofeverypeoplethathaveeverexistedwillabundantlyprove。
　　Andthatthesuperiorpowerofpopulationcannotbecheckedwithoutproducingmiseryorvice，theampleportionofthesetoobitteringredientsinthecupofhumanlifeandthecontinuanceofthe。physicalcausesthatseemtohaveproducedthembeartooconvincingatestimony。
　　But，inordermorefullytoascertainthevalidityofthesethreepropositions，letusexaminethedifferentstatesinwhichmankindhavebeenknowntoexist。Evenacursoryreviewwill，I
　　think，besufficienttoconvinceusthatthesepropositionsareincontrovertibletruths。
　　CHAPTER3
　　Thesavageorhunterstateshortlyreviewed—Theshepherdstate，orthetribesofbarbariansthatoverrantheRomanEmpire—Thesuperiorityofthepowerofpopulationtothemeansofsubsistence—thecauseofthegreattideofNorthernEmigration。
　　INtherudeststateofmankind，inwhichhuntingistheprincipaloccupation，andtheonlymodeofacquiringfood，themeansofsubsistencebeingscatteredoveralargeextentofterritory，thecomparativepopulationmustnecessarilybethin。ItissaidthatthepassionbetweenthesexesislessardentamongtheNorthAmericanIndiansthanamonganyotherraceofmen。Yet，notwithstandingthisapathy，theefforttowardspopulation，eveninthispeople，seemstobealwaysgreaterthanthemeanstosupportit。Thisappearsfromthecomparativelyrapidpopulationthattakesplacewheneveranyofthetribeshappentosettleinsomefertilespotandtodrawnourishmentfrommorefruitfulsourcesthanthatofhunting，andithasbeenfrequentlyremarkedthatwhenanIndianfamilyhastakenupitsabodenearanyEuropeansettlementandadoptedamoreeasyandcivilizedmodeoflife，thatonewomanhasrearedfive，orsix，ormorechildren，thoughinthesavagestateitrarelyhappensthataboveoneortwoinafamilygrowuptomaturity。ThesameobservationhasbeenmadewithregardtotheHottentotsneartheCape。Thesefactsprovethesuperiorpowerofpopulationtothemeansofsubsistenceinnationsofhunters，andthatthispoweralwaysshewsitselfthemomentitislefttoactwithfreedom。
　　Itremainstoinquirewhetherthispowercanbechecked，anditseffectskeptequaltothemeansofsubsistence，withoutviceormisery。
　　TheNorthAmericanIndians，consideredasapeople，cannotjustlybecalledfreeandequal。Inalltheaccountswehaveofthem，and，indeed，ofmostothersavagenations，thewomenarerepresentedasmuchmorecompletelyinastateofslaverytothementhanthepooraretotherichincivilizedcountries。OnehalfthenationappearstoactasHelotstotheotherhalf，andthemiserythatcheckspopulationfallschiefly，asitalwaysmustdo，uponthatpartwhoseconditionislowestinthescaleofsociety。Theinfancyofmaninthesimpleststaterequiresconsiderableattention，butthisnecessaryattentionthewomencannotgive，condemnedastheyaretotheinconveniencesandhardshipsoffrequentchangeofplaceandtotheconstantandunremittingdrudgeryofpreparingeverythingforthereceptionoftheirtyranniclords。Theseexertions，sometimesduringpregnancyorwithchildrenattheirbacks，mustoccasionfrequentmiscarriages，andpreventanybutthemostrobustinfantsfromgrowingtomaturity。Addtothesehardshipsofthewomentheconstantwarthatprevailsamongsavages，andthenecessitywhichtheyfrequentlylabourunderofexposingtheiragedandhelplessparents，andofthusviolatingthefirstfeelingsofnature，andthepicturewillnotappearveryfreefromtheblotofmisery。Inestimatingthehappinessofasavagenation，wemustnotfixoureyesonlyonthewarriorintheprimeoflife：heisoneofahundred：heisthegentleman，themanoffortune，thechanceshavebeeninhisfavourandmanyeffortshavefailederethisfortunatebeingwasproduced，whoseguardiangeniusshouldpreservehimthroughthenumberlessdangerswithwhichhewouldbesurroundedfrominfancytomanhood。Thetruepointsofcomparisonbetweentwonationsseemtobetheranksineachwhichappearnearesttoanswertoeachother。Andinthisview，I
　　shouldcomparethewarriorsintheprimeoflifewiththegentlemen，andthewomen，children，andaged，withthelowerclassesofthecommunityincivilizedstates。
　　Maywenotthenfairlyinferfromthisshortreview，orrather，fromtheaccountsthatmaybereferredtoofnationsofhunters，thattheirpopulationisthinfromthescarcityoffood，thatitwouldimmediatelyincreaseiffoodwasingreaterplenty，andthat，puttingviceoutofthequestionamongsavages，miseryisthecheckthatrepressesthesuperiorpowerofpopulationandkeepsitseffectsequaltothemeansofsubsistence。Actualobservationandexperiencetellusthatthischeck，withafewlocalandtemporaryexceptions，isconstantlyactingnowuponallsavagenations，andthetheoryindicatesthatitprobablyactedwithnearlyequalstrengthathousandyearsago，anditmaynotbemuchgreaterathousandyearshence。
　　Ofthemannersandhabitsthatprevailamongnationsofshepherds，thenextstateofmankind，weareevenmoreignorantthanofthesavagestate。Butthatthesenationscouldnotescapethegenerallotofmiseryarisingfromthewantofsubsistence，Europe，andallthefairestcountriesintheworld，bearampletestimony。WantwasthegoadthatdrovetheScythianshepherdsfromtheirnativehaunts，likesomanyfamishedwolvesinsearchofprey。Setinmotionbythisallpowerfulcause，cloudsofBarbariansseemedtocollectfromallpointsofthenorthernhemisphere。Gatheringfreshdarknessandterrorastheyrolledon，thecongregatedbodiesatlengthobscuredthesunofitalyandsunkthewholeworldinuniversalnight。Thesetremendouseffects，solongandsodeeplyfeltthroughoutthefairestportionsoftheearth，maybetracedtothesimplecauseofthesuperiorpowerofpopulationtothemeansofsubsistence。
　　Itiswellknownthatacountryinpasturecannotsupportsomanyinhabitantsasacountryintillage，butwhatrendersnationsofshepherdssoformidableisthepowerwhichtheypossessofmovingalltogetherandthenecessitytheyfrequentlyfeelofexertingthispowerinsearchoffreshpasturefortheirherds。Atribethatwasrichincattlehadanimmediateplentyoffood。Eventheparentstockmightbedevouredinacaseofabsolutenecessity。Thewomenlivedingreatereasethanamongnationsofhunters。Themenboldintheirunitedstrengthandconfidingintheirpowerofprocuringpasturefortheircattlebychangeofplace，felt，probably，butfewfearsaboutprovidingforafamily。Thesecombinedcausessoonproducedtheirnaturalandinvariableeffect，anextendedpopulation。Amorefrequentandrapidchangeofplacebecamethennecessary。Awiderandmoreextensiveterritorywassuccessivelyoccupied。Abroaderdesolationextendedallaroundthem。Wantpinchedthelessfortunatemembersofthesociety，and，atlength，theimpossibilityofsupportingsuchanumbertogetherbecametooevidenttoberesisted。Youngscionswerethenpushedoutfromtheparent—stockandinstructedtoexplorefreshregionsandtogainhappierseatsforthemselvesbytheirswords。’Theworldwasallbeforethemwheretochoose。’Restlessfrompresentdistress，flushedwiththehopeoffairerprospects，andanimatedwiththespiritofhardyenterprise，thesedaringadventurerswerelikelytobecomeformidableadversariestoallwhoopposedthem。Thepeacefulinhabitantsofthecountriesonwhichtheyrushedcouldnotlongwithstandtheenergyofmenactingundersuchpowerfulmotivesofexertion。Andwhentheyfellinwithanytribesliketheirown，thecontestwasastruggleforexistence，andtheyfoughtwithadesperatecourage，inspiredbythereJectionthatdeathwasthepunishmentofdefeatandlifetheprizeofvictory。
　　Inthesesavagecontestsmanytribesmusthavebeenutterlyexterminated。Some，probably，perishedbyhardshipandfamine。
　　Others，whoseleadingstarhadgiventhemahappierdirection，becamegreatandpowerfultribes，and，intheirturns，sentofffreshadventurersinsearchofstillmorefertileseats。Theprodigiouswasteofhumanlifeoccasionedbythisperpetualstruggleforroomandfoodwasmorethansuppliedbythemightypowerofpopulation，acting，insomedegree，unshackledfromtheconsenthabitofemigration。ThetribesthatmigratedtowardstheSouth，thoughtheywonthesemorefruitfulregionsbycontinualbattles，rapidlyincreasedinnumberandpower，fromtheincreasedmeansofsubsistence。Tillatlengththewholeterritory，fromtheconfinesofChinatotheshoresoftheBaltic，waspeopledbyavariousraceofBarbarians，brave，robust，andenterprising，inuredtohardship，anddelightinginwar。Sometribesmaintainedtheirindependence。Othersrangedthemselvesunderthestandardofsomebarbaricchieftainwholedthemtovictoryaftervictory，andwhatwasofmoreimportance，toregionsaboundingincorn，wine，andoil，thelongwishedforconsummation，andgreatrewardoftheirlabours。AnAlaric，anAttila，oraZingisKhan，andthechiefsaroundthem，mightfightforglory，forthefameofextensiveconquests，butthetruecausethatsetinmotionthegreattideofnorthernemigration，andthatcontinuedtopropelittillitrolledatdifferentperiodsagainstChina，Persia，italy，andevenEgypt，wasascarcityoffood，apopulationextendedbeyondthemeansofsupportingit。
　　Theabsolutepopulationatanyoneperiod，inproportiontotheextentofterritory，couldneverbegreat，onaccountoftheunproductivenatureofsomeoftheregionsoccupied;butthereappearstohavebeenamostrapidsuccessionofhumanbeings，andasfastassomeweremoweddownbythescytheofwaroroffamine，othersroseinincreasednumberstosupplytheirplace。
　　AmongtheseboldandimprovidentBarbarians，populationwasprobablybutlittlechecked，asinmodernstates，fromafearoffuturedifficulties。Aprevailinghopeofbetteringtheirconditionbychangeofplace，aconstantexpectationofplunder，apowereven，ifdistressed，ofsellingtheirchildrenasslaves，addedtothenaturalcarelessnessofthebarbariccharacter，allconspiredtoraiseapopulationwhichremainedtoberepressedafterwardsbyfamineorwar。
　　Wherethereisanyinequalityofconditions，andamongnationsofshepherdsthissoontakesplace，thedistressarisingfromascarcityofprovisionsmustfallhardestupontheleastfortunatemembersofthesociety。Thisdistressalsomustfrequentlyhavebeenfeltbythewomen，exposedtocasualplunderintheabsenceoftheirhusbands，andsubjecttocontinualdisappointmentsintheirexpectedreturn。
　　Butwithoutknowingenoughoftheminuteandintimatehistoryofthesepeople，topointoutpreciselyonwhatpartthedistressforwantoffoodchieflyfell，andtowhatextentitwasgenerallyfelt，Ithinkwemayfairlysay，fromalltheaccountsthatwehaveofnationsofshepherds，thatpopulationinvariablyincreasedamongthemwhenever，byemigrationoranyothercause，themeansofsubsistencewereincreased，andthatafurtherpopulationwaschecked，andtheactualpopulationkeptequaltothemeansofsubsistence，bymiseryandvice。
　　For，independentlyofanyviciouscustomsthatmighthaveprevailedamongstthemwithregardtowomen，whichalwaysoperateascheckstopopulation，itmustbeacknowledged，Ithink，thatthecommissionofwarisvice，andtheeffectofitmisery，andnonecandoubtthemiseryofwantoffood。
　　CHAPTER4
　　Stateofcivilizednations—ProbabilitythatEuropeismuchmorepopulousnowthaninthetimeofJuliusCaesar—Bestcriterionofpopulation—ProbableerrorofHumeinonethecriterionsthatheproposesasassistinginanestimateofpopulation—SlowincreaseofpopulationatpresentinmostofthestatesofEurope—Thetwoprincipalcheckstopopulation—Thefirst，orpreventivecheckexaminedwithregardtoEngland。
　　INexaminingthenextstateofmankindwithrelationtothequestionbeforeus，thestateofmixedpastureandtillage，inwhichwithsomevariationintheproportionsthemostcivilizednationsmustalwaysremain，weshallbeassistedinourreviewbywhatwedailyseearoundus，byactualexperience，byfactsthatcomewithinthescopeofeveryman’sobservation。
　　Notwithstandingtheexaggerationsofsomeoldhistorians，therecanremainnodoubtinthemindofanythinkingmanthatthepopulationoftheprincipalcountriesofEurope，France，England，Germany，Russia，Poland，Sweden，andDenmarkismuchgreaterthaneveritwasinformertimes。Theobviousreasonoftheseexaggerationsistheformidableaspectthatevenathinlypeoplednationmusthave，whencollectedtogetherandmovingallatonceinsearchoffreshseats。Iftothistremendousappearancebeaddedasuccessionatcertainintervalsofsimilaremigrations，weshallnotbemuch。surprisedthatthefearsofthetimidnationsoftheSouthrepresentedtheNorthasaregionabsolutelyswarmingwithhumanbeings。Anearerandjusterviewofthesubjectatpresentenablesustoseethattheinferencewasasabsurdasifamaninthiscountry，whowascontinuallymeetingontheroaddrovesofcattlefromWalesandtheNorth，wasimmediatelytoconcludethatthesecountrieswerethemostproductiveofallthepartsofthekingdom。
　　ThereasonthatthegreaterpartofEuropeismorepopulousnowthanitwasinformertimes，isthattheindustryoftheinhabitantshasmadethesecountriesproduceagreaterquantityofhumansubsistence。ForIconceivethatitmaybelaiddownasapositionnottobecontroverted，that，takingasufficientextentofterritorytoincludewithinitexportationandimportation，andallowingsomevariationfortheprevalenceofluxury，oroffrugalhabits，thatpopulationconstantlybearsaregularproportiontothefoodthattheearthismadetoproduce。
　　Inthecontroversyconcerningthepopulousnessofancientandmodernnations，coulditbeclearlyascertainedthattheaverageproduceofthecountriesinquestion，takenaltogether，isgreaternowthanitwasinthetimesofJuliusCaesar，thedisputewouldbeatoncedetermined。
　　WhenweareassuredthatChinaisthemostfertilecountryintheworld，thatalmostallthelandisintillage，andthatagreatpartofitbearstwocropseveryyear，andfurther，thatthepeopleliveveryfrugally，wemayinferwithcertaintythatthepopulationmustbeimmense，withoutbusyingourselvesininquiriesintothemannersandhabitsofthelowerclassesandtheencouragementstoearlymarriages。Buttheseinquiriesareoftheutmostimportance，andaminutehistoryofthecustomsofthelowerChinesewouldbeofthegreatestuseinascertaininginwhatmannerthecheckstoafurtherpopulationoperate;whatarethevices，andwhatarethedistressesthatpreventanincreaseofnumbersbeyondtheabilityofthecountrytosupport。
　　Hume，inhisessayonthepopulousnessofancientandmodernnations，whenheintermingles，ashesays，aninquiryconcerningcauseswiththatconcerningfacts，doesnotseemtoseewithhisusualpenetrationhowverylittlesomeofthecauseshealludestocouldenablehimtoformanyjudgementoftheactualpopulationofancientnations。Ifanyinferencecanbedrawnfromthem，perhapsitshouldbedirectlythereverseofwhatHumedraws，thoughIcertainlyoughttospeakwithgreatdiffidenceindissentingfromamanwhoofallothersonsuchsubjectswastheleastlikelytobedeceivedbyfirstappearances。IfIfindthatatacertainperiodinancienthistory，theencouragementstohaveafamilyweregreat，thatearlymarriageswereconsequentlyveryprevalent，andthatfewpersonsremainedsingle，Ishouldinferwithcertaintythatpopulationwasrapidlyincreasing，butbynomeansthatitwasthenactuallyverygreat，rather;indeed，thecontrary，thatitwasthenthinandthattherewasroomandfoodforamuchgreaternumber。Ontheotherhand，ifIfindthatatthisperiodthedifficultiesattendingafamilywereverygreat，that，consequently，fewearlymarriagestookplace，andthatagreatnumberofbothsexesremainedsingle，Iinferwithcertaintythatpopulationwasatastand，and，probably，becausetheactualpopulationwasverygreatinproportiontothefertilityofthelandandthattherewasscarcelyroomandfoodformore。Thenumberoffootmen，housemaids，andotherpersonsremainingunmarriedinmodernstates，Humeallowstoberatheranargumentagainsttheirpopulation。Ishouldratherdrawacontraryinferenceandconsideritanargumentoftheirfullness，thoughthisinferenceisnotcertain，becausetherearemanythinlyinhabitedstatesthatareyetstationaryintheirpopulation。Tospeak，therefore，correctly，perhapsitmaybesaidthatthenumberofunmarriedpersonsinproportiontothewholenumber，existingatdifferentperiods，inthesameordifferentstateswillenableustojudgewhetherpopulationattheseperiodswasincreasing，stationary，ordecreasing，butwillformnocriterionbywhichwecandeterminetheactualpopulation。