首页 >出版文学> Letters on the Study and Use of History>第30章
  separation,andcertainlyinamuchbetterconditionthantwoorthreeyearsbefore,whenadelugeofbloodwasspilttodislodgethem,forwedidnomore,atMalplaquet。WouldtheGermansandtheDutchhavefounditmoreeasytoforcethematthistime,thanitwasatthat?WouldnottheFrenchhavefoughtwithasmuchobstinacytosaveParis,astheydidtosaveMons?and,withalltheregardduetotheDukeofOrmond,andtoprinceEugene,wastheabsenceoftheDukeofMarlboroughofnoconsequence?Turnthisaffaireverywayinyourthoughts,mylord,andyouwillfindthattheGermansandtheDutchhadnothingintheirs,buttobreak,atanyrate,andatanyrisk,thenegotiationsthatwerebegun,andtoreduceGreatBritaintothenecessityofcontinuing,whatshehadbeentoolong,aprovinceoftheconfederacy。Aprovince,indeed,andnotoneofthebesttreated;sincetheconfederatesassumedarightofobliginghertokeepherpactswiththem,andofdispensingwiththeirobligationstoher;ofexhaustingher,withoutrule,orproportion,ormeasure,inthesupportofawar,towhichshealonecontributedmorethanallofthem,andinwhichshehadnolongeranimmediateinterest,norevenanyremoteinterestthatwasnotcommon,orwithrespecttoher,verydubious;and,afterallthis,ofcomplainingthatthequeenpresumedtohearkentooverturesofpeace,andtosetanegotiationonfoot,whilsttheirhumorandambitionrequiredthatthewarshouldbeprolongedforanindefinitetime,andforapurposethatwaseitherbadorindeterminate。
  Thesuspensionofarms,thatbeganintheLowCountries,wascontinued,andextendedafterwardsbytheactIsignedatFontainebleu。Thefortuneofthewarturnedatthesametime;andallthosedisgracesfollowed,whichobligedtheDutchtotreat,andtodesiretheassistanceofthequeen,whomtheyhadsetatdefiancesolately。Theassistancetheyhad,aseffectuallyasitcouldbegiveninthecircumstancestowhichtheyhadreducedthemselves,andthewholealliance:andthepeaceofGreatBritain,Portugal,Savoy,Prussia,andtheStatesGeneral,wasmade,withouthisImperialmajesty’sconcurrence,inthespringofonethousandsevenhundredandthirteen;asitmighthavebeenmade,muchmoreadvantageouslyforthemall,inthatofonethousandsevenhundredandtwelve。Lessobstinacyonthepartofthestates,andperhapsmoredecisiveresolutionsonthepartofthequeen,wouldhavewoundupallthesedividedthreadsinone,andhavefinishedthisgreatworkmuchsoonerandbetter。Isay,perhapsmoredecisiveresolutionsonthepartofthequeen,becausealthoughIthinkthatIshouldhaveconveyedherordersforsigningatreatyofpeacewithFrance,beforethearmiestookthefield,muchmorewillingly,thanIexecutedthemafterwardsinsigningthatofthecessationofarms;yetIdonotpresumetodecide,butshalldesireyourlordshiptodoso,onareviewofallcircumstances,someofwhichIshalljustmention。
  Theleaguemadeforprotractingthewarhavingopposedthequeentotheutmostoftheirpower,andbymeansofeverysort,fromthefirstappearanceofanegotiation;thegeneraleffectofthisviolentopposition,onherandherministers,was,tomakethemproceedbyslowerandmorecautioussteps;
  theparticulareffectofitwas,toobligethemtoopentheeyesofthenation,andtoinflamethepeoplewithadesireofpeace,byshowing,inthemostpublicandsolemnmanner,howunequallywewereburdened,andhowunfairlyweweretreatedbyourallies。Thefirstgaveanairofdiffidenceandtimiditytotheirconduct,whichencouragedtheleague,andgavevigortotheopposition。
  ThesecondirritatedtheDutchparticularly;fortheemperorandtheotherallieshadthemodestyatleastnottopretendtobearanyproportionintheexpenseofthewar:andthusthetwopowers,whoseunionwasthemostessential,werethemostatvariance,andthequeenwasobligedtoactinacloserconcertwithherenemywhodesiredpeace,thanshewouldhavedoneifherallieshadbeenlessobstinatelybenttoprotractthewar。Duringthesetransactions,myLordOxford,whohadhiscorrespondencesapart,andaprivatethreadofnegotiationalwaysinhishands,entertainedhopesthatPhilipwouldbebroughttoabandonSpaininfavorofhisfather-in-law,andtocontenthimselfwiththestatesofthatprince,thekingdomofSicily,andthepreservationofhisrightofsuccessiontothecrownofFrance。Whethermylordhadanyparticularreasonsforentertainingthesehopes,besidethegeneralreasonsfoundedontheconditionofFrance,onthatoftheBourbonfamily,andonthedispositionofLouistheFourteenth,Idoubtverymuch。
  ThatLouis,whosought,andhadneedofseekingpeace,almostatanyrate,andwhosawthathecouldnotobtainit,evenofthequeen,unlessPhilipabandonedimmediatelythecrownofSpain,orabandonedimmediately,byrenunciationandasolemnactofexclusion,allpretensiontothatofFrance;thatLouiswasdesirousoftheformer,Icannotdoubt。ThatPhilipwouldhaveabandonedSpain,withtheequivalentsthathavebeenmentioned,oreitherofthem,Ibelievelikewise,ifthepresentkingofFrancehaddied,whenhisfather,mother,andeldestbrotherdid;fortheyallhadthesamedistemper。ButLouiswouldusenoviolentmeanstoforcehisgrandson;thequeenwouldnotcontinuethewartoforcehim;Philipwastooobstinate,andhiswifetooambitious,toquitthecrownofSpain,whentheyhaddiscoveredourweakness,andfelttheirownstrengthinthatcountry,bytheirsuccessinthecampaignofonethousandsevenhundredandten:afterwhichmyLordStanhopehimselfwasconvincedthatSpaincouldnotbeconquered,norkept,ifitwasconquered,withoutamuchgreaterarmythanitwaspossibleforustosendthither。
  Inthatsituationitwaswildtoimagine,astheEarlofOxfordimagined,orpretendedtoimagine,thattheywouldquitthecrownofSpain,foraremoteanduncertainprospectofsucceedingtothatofFrance,andcontentthemselvestobe,inthemeantime,princesofverysmalldominions。Philip,therefore,afterstrugglinglongthathemightnotbeobligedtomakehisoptiontillthesuccessionofFrancelayopentohim,wasobligedtomakeit,andmadeitforSpain。Nowthis,mylord,wastheverycrisisofthenegotiation;
  andtothispointIapplywhatIsaidaboveoftheeffectofmoredecisiveresolutionsonthepartofthequeen。Itwasplain,that,ifshemadethecampaigninconcertwithherallies,shecouldbenolongermistressofthenegotiations,norhavealmostachanceforconductingthemtotheissuesheproposed。OurillsuccessinthefieldwouldhaverenderedtheFrenchlesstractableinthecongress:ourgoodsuccesstherewouldhaverenderedthealliesso。Onthisprinciplethequeensuspendedtheoperationsofhertroops,andthenconcludedthecessation。
  Comparenowtheappearancesandeffectofthismeasure,withtheappearancesandeffectthatanothermeasurewouldhavehad。Inordertoarriveatanypeace,itwasnecessarytodowhatthequeendid,ortodomore:and,inordertoarriveatagoodone,itwasnecessarytobepreparedtocarryonthewar,aswellastomakeashowofit:forshehadthehardtaskuponher,ofguardingagainstherallies,andherenemiesboth。Butinthatferment,whenfewmenconsideredanythingcoolly,theconductofhergeneral,afterhetookthefield,thoughhecoveredthealliesinthesiegeofQuesnoy,correspondedill,inappearance,withthedeclarationsofcarryingonthewarvigorously,thathadbeenmade,onseveraloccasions,beforethecampaignopened。Ithadanairofdoubledealing;andassuchitpassedamongthose,whodidnotcombineintheirthoughtsallthecircumstancesoftheconjuncture,orwhowereinfatuatedwiththenotionalnecessityofcontinuingthewar。
  Theclamorcouldnothavebeengreater,ifthequeenhadsignedherpeaceseparately:and,Ithink,theappearancesmighthavebeenexplainedasfavorablyinonecase,asintheother。FromthedeathoftheemperorJoseph,itwasneitherourinterest,northecommoninterest,wellunderstood,tosetthecrownofSpainonthepresentemperor’shead。AssoonthereforeasPhiliphadmadehisoption,andifshehadtakenthisresolutionearly,hisoptionwouldhavebeensoonermade,Ipresumethatthequeenmighthavedeclared,thatshewouldnotcontinuethewaranhourlongertoprocureSpainforhisImperialmajesty;thattheengagements,shehadtakenwhilsthewasarchduke,boundhernomore;that,byhisaccessiontotheempire,theverynatureofthemwasaltered;thatshetookeffectualmeasurestoprevent,inanyfuturetime,anunionofthecrownsofFranceandSpain,and,uponthesameprinciple,wouldnotconsent,muchlessfight,tobringaboutanimmediateunionoftheImperialandSpanishcrowns;thatthey,whoinsistedtoprotractthewar,intendedthisunion;thattheycouldintendnothingelse,sincetheyventuredtobreakwithher,ratherthantotreat,andweresoeagertoputthereasonablesatisfaction,thattheymighthaveineveryothercasewithouthazard,ontheuncertaineventsofwar;thatshewouldnotbeimposedonanylongerinthismanner,andthatshehadorderedherministerstosignhertreatywithFrance,onthesurrenderofDunkirkintoherhands;thatshepretendednottoprescribetoherallies;butthatshehadinsisted,intheirbehalf,oncertainconditions,thatFrancewasobligedtogranttothoseofthem,whoshouldsigntheirtreatiesatthesametimeasshedid,orwhoshouldconsenttoanimmediatecessationofarms,andduringthecessationtreatunderhermediation。Therehadbeenmorefrankness,andmoredignityinthisproceeding,andtheeffectmusthavebeenmoreadvantageous。
  Francewouldhavegrantedmoreforaseparatepeace,thanforacessation:
  andtheDutchwouldhavebeenmoreinfluencedbytheprospectofone,thanoftheother;especiallysincethisproceedingwouldhavebeenverydifferentfromtheirsatMunster,andatNimeguen,wheretheyabandonedtheirallies,withoutanyotherpretencethantheparticularadvantagetheyfoundindoingso。Asuspensionoftheoperationsofthequeen’stroops,nayacessationofarmsbetweenherandFrance,wasnotdefinitive;andtheymight,andtheydid,hopetodragherbackundertheir,andtheGermanyoke。Thisthereforewasnotsufficienttochecktheirobstinacy,nortohinderthemfrommakingalltheunfortunatehastetheydidmaketogetthemselvesbeatenatDenain。
  Buttheywouldpossiblyhavelaidasidetheirvainhopes,iftheyhadseenthequeen’sministersreadytosignhertreatyofpeace,andthoseofsomeprincipalalliesreadytosignatthesametime;inwhichcasethemischiefthatfollowed,hadbeenprevented,andbettertermsofpeacehadbeenobtainedfortheconfederacy:aprinceofthehouseofBourbon,whocouldneverbekingofFrance,wouldhavesatontheSpanishthroneinsteadofanemperor:
  theSpanishsceptrewouldhavebeenweakenedinthehandsofone,andtheImperialsceptrewouldhavebeenstrengthenedinthoseoftheother:Francewouldhavehadnoopportunityofrecoveringfromformerblows,noroffinishingalongunsuccessfulwarbytwosuccessfulcampaigns:herambition,andherpower,wouldhavedeclinedwithheroldking,andundertheminoritythatfollowed:oneofthematleastmighthavebeensoreducedbythetermsofpeace,ifthedefeatofthealliesinonethousandsevenhundredandtwelve,andthelossofsomanytownsastheFrenchtookinthatandthefollowingyear,hadbeenprevented,thattheotherwouldhavebeennolongerformidable,evensupposingittohavecontinued;whereasIsupposethatthetranquilityofEuropeismoredue,atthistime,towantofambition,thantowantofpower,onthepartofFrance。But,tocarrythecomparisonofthesetwomeasurestotheend,itmaybesupposedthattheDutchwouldhavetakenthesamepart,onthequeen’sdeclaringaseparatepeace,astheytookonherdeclaringacessation。ThepreparationsforthecampaignintheLowcountriesweremade;theDutch,liketheotherconfederates,hadajustconfidenceintheirowntroops,andanunjustcontemptforthoseoftheenemy;theyweretransportedfromtheirusualsobrietyandcautionbytheambitiousprospectoflargeacquisitions,whichhadbeenopenedartfullytothem;therestoftheconfederatearmywascomposedofImperialandGermantroops:sothattheDutch,theImperialists,andtheotherGermans,havinganinteresttodecidewhichwasnolongertheinterestofthewholeconfederacy,theymighthaveunitedagainstthequeeninonecase,astheydidintheother;andthemischiefthatfollowedtothemandthecommoncause,mightnothavebeenprevented。Thismighthavebeenthecase,nodoubt。TheymighthaveflatteredthemselvesthattheyshouldbeabletobreakintoFrance,andtoforcePhilip,bythedistressbroughtonhisgrandfather,toresignthecrownofSpaintotheemperor,evenafterGreatBritain,andPortugal,andSavoytoo,perhaps,weredrawnoutofthewar;fortheseprincesdesiredaslittle,asthequeen,toseetheSpanishcrownontheemperor’shead。But,eveninthiscase,thoughthemadnesswouldhavebeengreater,theeffectwouldnothavebeenworse。Thequeenwouldhavebeenabletoservetheseconfederatesaswellbybeingmediatorinthenegotiations,astheyleftitinherpowertodo,bybeingapartyinthem:
  andGreatBritainwouldhavehadtheadvantageofbeingdeliveredsomuchsoonerfromaburden,whichwhimsicalandwickedpoliticshadimposed,andcontinueduponhertillitwasbecomeintolerable。Ofthesetwomeasures,atthetimewhenwemighthavetakeneither,therewerepersonswhothoughtthelastpreferabletotheformer。Butitnevercameintopublicdebate。
  Indeeditnevercould;toomuchtimehavingbeenlostinwaitingfortheoptionofPhilip,andthesuspensionandcessationhavingbeenbroughtbeforethecouncilratherasameasuretaken,thanamattertobedebated。Ifyourlordship,oranyoneelseshouldjudge,that,insuchcircumstancesasthoseoftheconfederacyinthebeginningofonethousandsevenhundredandtwelve,thelattermeasureoughttohavebeentaken,andtheGordianknottohavebeencutratherthantosufferamocktreatytolanguishon,withsomuchadvantagetotheFrenchasthedisunionofthealliesgavethem;inshort,ifslowness,perplexity,inconsistency,andindecisionshouldbeobjected,insomeinstances,tothequeen’scouncilsatthattime;ifitshouldbesaid