thatthosewhohadfortunesinslaveswereamerehandful——justastodaythosewhohavefortunesinsteelorbeefaremerehandfuls。Butstilllessdidheknowhowentirelythisvastmajoritywhichhadsolittle，ifany，interestinslavery，hadgrowntofearanddistrusttheNorth。They，likehim，weresufferingfromanearhorizon。They，too，wereapplyingtheprinciple“Standwithanybodysolongashestandsright“Butforthem，standingrightmeantpreventingaviolentrevolutioninSouthernlife。Indifferentastheyweretoslavery，theywerewillingtogoalongwiththe“slave-barons“intheattempttoconsolidatetheSouthinamovementofdenial——adenialoftherightoftheNorth，eitherthroughAbolitionismorthroughtariff，todominatetheSouth。
　　IfonlyLincolnwithhissubtlemindcouldhavecomeintotouchwiththenegativesideoftheSouthernagitation!Itwastheotherside，thepositiveside，thatwasvocal。Withimmenseshrewdnesstheprofiteersofslaverysawanddevelopedtheiropportunity。TheyorganizedtheSouth。Theypreachedonalloccasions，inallconnections，theneedofallSouthernerstostandtogether，nomatterhowgreattheirdisagreements，inordertopreventtheimpoverishmentoftheSouthbyhostileeconomiclegislation。Duringthelate’fiftiestheirpropagandaforanall-Southernpolicy，madeslowbutconstantheadway。Butevenin1859theseideaswerestillfarfromcontrollingtheSouth。
　　AndthencameJohnBrown。ThedreadofslaveinsurrectionwaslaiddeepinSouthernrecollection。Thirtyyearsbefore，theNatTurnerRebellionhadfilledaportionofVirginiawithburnedplantationhousesamidwhoseruinslaythedeadbodiesofwhitewomen。Alittleearlier，anegroconspiracyatCharlestonplannedthemurderofwhitemenandtheparcelingoutofwhitewomenamongtheconspirators。AndJohnBrownhadcomeintoVirginiaattheheadofabandofstrangerscallingupontheslavestoriseandarm。
　　Herewasasupremeopportunity。ThepositiveSouthernforce，theslaveprofiteers，seizedatoncetheattitudeofchampionsoftheSouth。ItwaseasyenoughtoenlistthenegativeforceinashockedandoutrageddenunciationofeverythingNorthern。
　　AndtheNorthernextremistsdidallthatwasintheirpowertoaddfueltotheflame。EmersoncalledBrown“thisnewsaintwhohadmadethegallowsgloriousasthecross。“TheSoutherners，hearingthat，thoughtoftheconspiracytoparceloutthewhitewomenofCharleston。Earlyin1860itseemedasifthewholeSouthhadbutoneidea-topartcompanywiththeNorth。
　　NowonderLincolnthrewallhisinfluenceintothescaletodiscreditthememoryofBrown。NowondertheRepublicansintheirplatformcarefullyrepudiatedhim。TheycouldnotundotheimpressionmadeontheSouthernmindbytwofacts：themenwholaudedBrownasanewsaintwerevotingtheRepublicanticket；theRepublicanshadcommittedthemselvestotheanti-Southernpolicyofprotection。
　　Andyet，inspiteofallthelaborsofpro-slaveryextremists，themovementforabreachwiththeNorthlostgroundduring1860。Whentheelectioncame，thevoteforPresidentrevealedasingularandunforeseensituation。Fourcandidateswereinthefield。TheDemocrats，splitintotwobytheissueofslaveryexpansion，formedtwoparties。TheslaveprofiteerssecuredthenominationbyonefactionofJohnC。Breckinridge。
　　ThemoderateDemocratswhowouldneitherfightnorfavorslavery，nominatedDouglas。Themostpeculiargroupwasthefourth。TheyincludedallthosewhowouldnotjointheRepublicansforfearofthetemperoftheAbolition-members，butwhowerenotpromotersofslavery，andwhodistrustedDouglas。TheyhadnoprogrambuttorestoretheconditionofthingsthatexistedbeforetheNebraskaBill。Aboutfourmillionfivehundredthousandvoteswerecast。Lincolnhadlessthantwomillion，andallbutabouttwenty-fourthousandofthesewereintheFreeStates。However，thedispositionofLincoln’svotegavehimtheelectoralcollege。HewaschosenPresidentbythevotesofaminorityofthenation。Buttherewasanotherminorityvotewhichaseventsturnedout，provedequallysignificant。Breckinridge，thesymboloftheslaveprofiteers，andofallthosewhomtheyhadpersuadedtofollowthem，hadnotbeenabletocarrythepopularvoteoftheSouth。
　　Theyweredefinitelyintheminorityintheirownsection。ThemajorityoftheSouthernershadsofarreactedfromthewildalarmsofthebeginningoftheyearthattheyrefusedtogoalongwiththecandidatesoftheextremists。TheywereforgivingtheUnionanothertrial。TheSouthitselfhadrepudiatedtheslaveprofiteers。
　　ThiswastheimmenselysignificantfactofNovember，1860。Itmadeagreatimpressiononthewholecountry。ForthemomentitmadethefiercetalkoftheSouthernextremistsinconsequential。BuoyantNortherners，suchasSeward，feltthatthecrisiswasover；thattheSouthhadvotedforareconciliation；thatonlytactwasneededtomakeeverybodyhappy。When，afewweeksaftertheelection，Sewardsaidthatallwouldbemerryagaininsideofninetydays，hisillusionhadforitsfoundationtheSouthernrejectionoftheslaveprofiteers。
　　Unfortunately，SewarddidnotunderstandtheprecisesignificanceofthethoughtofthemoderateSouth。HedidnotunderstandthatwhiletheSouthhadvotedtosendBreckinridgeandhissortabouttheirbusiness，itwasstilldeeplyalarmed，deeplyfearfulthatafterallitmightatanyminutebeforcedtocallthemback，tomakecommoncausewiththemagainstwhatitregardedasanalienanddestructivepoliticalpower，theRepublicans。ThiswastheSouthernreservation，theunspokenconditionofthevotewhichSeward——andforthatmatter，Lincoln，also，——failedtocomprehend。Becauseofthesecross-purposes，becausetheSouthernalarmwasbasedonanotherthingthanthestandingorfallingofslavery，thesituationcalledformuchmorethantact，forprofoundpsychologicalstatesmanship。
　　AndnowemergesoutofthecomplexitiesoftheSouthernsituationapowerfulpersonalitywhoseideasandpointofviewLincolndidnotunderstand。RobertBarnwellRhetthadoncebeenamanofmightinpolitics。TwicehehadverynearlyrenttheUnionasunder。In1844，againin1851，hehadcometotheveryedgeofpersuadingSouthCarolinatosecede。IneachcasehesoughttoorganizethegeneraldiscontentoftheSouth，——itsdreadofatariff，andofNortherndomination。Afterhissecondfailure，hishaughtynaturetookoffenseatfortune。HeresignedhisseatintheSenateandwithdrewtoprivatelife。
　　Buthewastoolargeandtooboldacharactertoattainobscurity。Norwouldhisrestlessgeniuspermithimtorustinease。Duringthetroubled’fifties，hewatchedfromadistance，butwitheverincreasinginterest，thatnegativeSouthernforcewhichhe，inthemidstofit，comprehended，whileitdriftedunderthewingoftheextremists。Ashedidso，theoldarguments，theoldambitions，theoldhopesrevived。In1851hiscrytotheSouthwastoassertitselfasaSeparatenation——notforanyonereason，butformanyreasons——andtoleaditsownlifeapartfromtheNorth。Itwasanageofbrilliantthoughill-fatedrevolutionarymovementsinEurope。KossuthandthegallantHungarianattemptatindependencehadcaptivatedtheAmericanimagination。RhettdreamedofseeingtheSouthdowhatHungaryhadfailedtodo。
　　Hethoughtoftheproblemasamedievalknightwouldhavethought，intermsofindividualprowess，withthemodernfactors，economicsandalltheirsort，leftononeside。
　　“Smallernations[thanSouthCarolina]，“hesaidin1851，“havestrivenforfreedomagainstgreaterodds。“
　　In1860hehadconcludedthathisthirdchancehadcome。Hewouldtryoncemoretobringaboutsecession。TosplittheUnion，hewouldplayintothehandsoftheslave-barons。HewouldaimtocombinewiththeirmovementthenegativeSouthernmovementandusetheresultingcoalitiontocrownwithsuccesshisthirdattempt。Issuingfromhisseclusion，hebecameatoncetheovershadowingfigureinSouthCarolina。Aroundhimalltheelementsofrevolutioncrystallized。Hewassixtyyearsold；seasonedanduncompromisinginthepursuitofhisoneideal，theindependenceoftheSouth。Hisargumentswerethesamewhichhehadusedin1844，in1851：theNorthwouldimpoverishtheSouth；itthreatenstoimposeacrushingtributeintheshapeofprotection；itseekstodestroyslavery；itaimstobringabouteconomiccollapse；inthewreckthusproduced，everythingthatisbeautiful，charming，distinctiveinSouthernlifewillbelost；letusfight!Withsuchaleader，theforcesofdiscontentwerequickly，effectively，organized。EvenbeforetheelectionofLincoln，therevolutionaryleadersinSouthCarolinawerecorrespondingwithmenoflikemindinotherSouthernStates，especiallyAlabama，wherewasanotherleader，Yancey，onlysecondinintensitytoRhett。
　　ThewordfromtheseAlabamarevolutioniststoSouthCarolinawastodareall，torisksecedingalone，confidentthattheotherStatesoftheSouthwouldfollow。Rhettandhisnewassociatestookthisperilousadvice。TheelectionwasfollowedbythecallofaconventionofdelegatesofthepeopleofSouthCarolina。Thisconvention，onthetwentiethofDecember，1860，repealedthelawswhichunitedSouthCarolinawiththeotherStatesandproclaimedtheirownindependent。
　　ThoughSewardandotherbuoyantnaturesfeltthatthecrisishadpassedwiththeelection，lessvolatilepeopleheldtheoppositeview。MenwhohadneverbeforetakenseriouslytheSouthernthreatsofdisunionhadwakedsuddenlytoaterrifiedconsciousnessthattheywereinforit。Intheirblindnesstorealitiesearlierintheyear，theywerelikethatbrillianthostofcampfollowerswhich，asThackerayputsit，ledthearmyofWellingtondancingandfeastingtotheverybrinkofWaterloo。Andnowthedayofreckoninghadcome。Anemotionalreactioncarriedthemfromoneextremetotheother；fromself-sufficientdisregardoftheiradversariestoanalmostself-abasingregard。
　　TheverytypeofthesepeopleandoftheirreactionwasHoraceGreeley。Hewasdestinedmanytimestomakeplainthathelivedmainlyinhissensibilities；that，inhiskaleidoscopicvision，thepatternoftheworldcouldberedandyellowandgreentoday，andorangeandpurpleandbluetomorrow。Todescendfromapinnacleofself-complacencyintoadesolatingabyssofpanic，wasaseasyforGreeleyasitis——inthevulgarbutpointedAmericanphrase——torolloffalog。Afewdaysaftertheelection，Greeleyhadrolledoffhislog。Hewaswallowinginpanic。Hebegantoscreameditorially。TheSouthernextremistswereterriblyinearnest；iftheywantedtogo，gotheywould，andgotheyshould。ButfoolishNorthernerswouldbesuretotalkwarandtheretainingoftheSouthintheUnionbyforce：itmustnotbe；whatwastheUnioncomparedwithbloodshed？Theremustbenowar——nowar。SuchwasGreeley’sterrified——appealtotheNorth。AfewweeksaftertheelectionheprintedhisfamouseditorialdenouncingtheideaofaUnionpinnedtogetherbybayonets。Hefollowedupwithanotherstartlingconcessiontohisfears：theSouthhadasgoodcauseforleavingtheUnionasthecolonieshadforleavingtheBritishEmpire。Alittlelater，heformulatedhisultimateconclusion，——whichlikemanyofhisultimatesprovedtobetransitory，——anddeclaredthatifanygroupofSouthernStates“choosetoformanindependentnation，theyhaveaclearmoralrighttodoso，“andpledginghimselfandhisfollowerstodo“ourbesttoforwardtheirviews。
　　GreeleywieldedthroughTheTribunemoreinfluence，perhaps，thanwaspossessedbyanyotherRepublicanwiththesingleexceptionofLincoln。Hisnewspaperconstituencywasenormous，andtherelationbetweentheleaderandtheledwasunusuallyclose。Hewasbothoracleandbarometer。AsasymptomoftheRepublicanpanic，asacauseincreasingthatpanic，hewasoffirstimportance。
　　MeanwhileCongresshadmet。Andatonce，themostcharacteristicpeculiarityofthemomentwasagainmadeemphatic。Thepopularmajoritiesandthepoliticalmachinesdidnotcoincide。BothintheNorthandintheSouthaminorityheldthesituationinthehollowofitshand。TheBreckinridgeDemocrats，despitetheirrepudiationinthepresidentialvote，includedsomanyoftheSouthernpoliticians，theyweresowellorganized，theyhadscoredsuchamenacingvictorywiththeaidofRhettinSouthCarolina，theyhadplayedsoskilfullyonthefearsoftheSouthatlarge，theirleadersweresuchskilledmanagers，thattheywereabletocontinueforthemomenttherecognizedspokesmenoftheSouthatWashington。Theylostnotimedefiningtheirposition。IftheUnionwerenottobesundered，theRepublicansmustpledgethemselvestoanewandextensivecompromise；itmustbefardifferentfromthosehistoriccompromisesthathadprecededit。Threefeaturesmustcharacterizeanynewagreement：TheSouthmustbedealtwithasaunit；itmustbegivena“sphereofinfluence“——touseourmodernterm——whichwouldfullysatisfyallitsimpulsesofexpansion；andinthatsphere，everyquestionofslaverymustbeleftentirely，forever，tolocalaction。Inaword，theydemandedfortheSouthwhattodaywouldbedescribedasa“dominion“status。Therefore，theyinsistedthatthepartywhichhadcapturedtheNorthernpoliticalmachineshouldformulateitsreplytothesedemands。Theygavenoticethattheywouldnotdiscussindividualschemes，butonlysuchasthevictoriousRepublicansmightofficiallypresent。Thusthenationalcrisisbecameapartycrisis。WhatcouldtheRepublicansamongthemselvesagreetopropose？
　　ThecentralfigureofthecrisisseemedatfirsttobethebrilliantRepublicanSenatorfromNewYork。SewardthoughtheunderstoodtheSouth，andwhatwasstillmoreimportant，humannature。ThoughheechoedGreeley’scryforpeace——translatinghispassionatehysteriaintothepolishedcynicismofadiplomatwhohadbeenknowntodenythathewaseverentirelyserious-hescoffedatGreeley’sfears。IftheSouthhadnotvotedlackofconfidenceintheBreckinridgecrowd，whathaditvoted？IftheBreckinridgeleadersweren’tmaneuveringtosavetheirfaces，whatcouldtheybeaccusedofdoing？IfSeward，theRepublicanmanofgenius，couldn’tseethroughallthat，couldn’tdeviseawaytohelpthemsavetheirfaces，whatwastheuseinbeingabrilliantpolitician？
　　Jauntilyself-complacent，asconfidentofhimselfasifRomewereburningandhethegarlandedfiddler，SewardbracedhimselfforthetaskofrecreatingtheUnion。