首页 >出版文学> General Theory of Employment,Interest and Money>第1章
  GENERALINTRODUCTION
  ThisnewstandardeditionofTheCollectedWritingsofJohnMaynardKeynesformsthememorialtohimoftheRoyalEconomicSociety。HedevotedaverylargeshareofhisbusylifetotheSociety。In1911,attheageoftwenty-eight,hebecameeditoroftheEconomicJournalinsuccessiontoEdgeworth;twoyearslaterhewasmadesecretaryaswell。
  Heheldtheseofficeswithoutintermittenceuntilalmosttheendofhislife。
  Edgeworth,itistrue,returnedtohelphimwiththeeditorshipfrom1919to1925;MacGregortookEdgeworth'splaceuntil1934,whenAustinRobinsonsucceededhimandcontinuedtoassistKeynesdownto1945。ButthroughalltheseyearsKeyneshimselfcarriedthemajorresponsibilityandmadetheprincipaldecisionsaboutthearticlesthatweretoappearintheEconomicJournal,withoutanybreaksaveforoneortwoissueswhenhewasseriouslyillin1937。ItwasonlyafewmonthsbeforehisdeathatEaster1946thathewaselectedpresidentandhandedoverhiseditorshiptoRoyHarrodandthesecretaryshiptoAustinRobinson。
  InhisdualcapacityofeditorandsecretaryKeynesplayedamajorpartinframingthepoliciesoftheRoyalEconomicSociety。ItwasverylargelyduetohimthatsomeofthemajorpublishingactivitiesoftheSociety¾;Sraffa'seditionofRicardo,Stark'seditionoftheeconomicwritingsofBentham,andGuillebaud'seditionofMarshall,aswellasanumberofearlierpublicationsinthe1930s¾;wereinitiated。
  WhenKeynesdiedin1946itwasnaturalthattheRoyalEconomicSocietyshouldwishtocommemoratehim。ItwasperhapsequallynaturalthattheSocietychosetocommemoratehimbyproducinganeditionofhiscollectedworks。
  Keyneshimselfhadalwaystakenajoyinfineprinting,andtheSociety,withthehelpofMessrsMacmillanaspublishersandtheCambridgeUniversityPressasprinters,hasbeenanxioustogiveKeynes'swritingsapermanentformthatiswhollyworthyofhim。
  Thepresenteditionwillpublishasmuchasispossibleof[Pagex]THE
  GENERALTHEORYOFEMPLOYMENT
  hisworkinthefieldofeconomics。Itwillnotincludeanyprivateandpersonalcorrespondenceorpublishlettersinthepossessionofhisfamily。Theeditionisconcerned,thatistosay,withKeynesasaneconomist。
  Keynes'swritingsfallintofivebroadcategories。First,therearethebookswhichhewroteandpublishedasbooks。Second,therearecollectionsofarticlesandpamphletswhichhehimselfmadeduringhislifetimeEssaysinPersuasionandEssaysinBiography。Third,thereisaveryconsiderablevolumeofpublishedbutuncollectedwritings¾;articleswrittenfornewspapers,letterstonewspapers,articlesinjournalsthathavenotbeenincludedinhistwovolumesofcollections,andvariouspamphlets。
  Fourth,thereareafewhithertounpublishedwritings。Fifth,thereiscorrespondencewitheconomistsandconcernedwitheconomicsorpublicaffairs。
  ThisserieswillattempttopublishacompleterecordofKeynes'sseriouswritingasaneconomist。Itistheintentiontopublishalmostcompletelythewholeofthefirstfourcategorieslistedabove。TheonlyexceptionsareafewsyndicatedarticleswhereKeyneswrotealmostthesamematerialforpublicationindifferentnewspapersorindifferentcountries,withminorandunimportantvariations。Inthesecases,thisserieswillpublishoneonlyofthevariations,choosingthemostinteresting。
  ThepublicationofKeynes'seconomiccorrespondencemustinevitablybeselective。Inthedayofthetypewriterandthefilingcabinetandparticularlyinthecaseofsoactiveandbusyaman,topublisheveryscrapofpaperthathemayhavedictatedaboutsomeunimportantorephemeralmatterisimpossible。Weareaimingtocollectandpublishasmuchaspossible,however,ofthecorrespondenceinwhichKeynesdevelopedhisownideasinargumentwithhisfelloweconomists,aswellasthemoresignificantcorrespondenceattimeswhenKeyneswasinthemiddleofpublicaffairs。
  Apartfromhispublishedbooks,themainsourcesavailabletothosepreparingthisserieshavebeentwo。First,KeynesinhiswillmadeRichardKahnhisexecutorandresponsiblefor[Pagexi]GENERAL
  INTRODUCTION
  hiseconomicpapers。TheyhavebeenplacedintheMarshallLibraryoftheUniversityofCambridgeandhavebeenavailableforthisedition。Until1914Keynesdidnothaveasecretaryandhisearliestpapersareinthemainlimitedtodraftsofimportantlettersthathemadeinhisownhandwritingandretained。Atthatstagemostofthecorrespondencethatwepossessisrepresentedbywhathereceivedratherthanbywhathewrote。Duringtheyears1914-18and1940-46
  KeyneswasservingintheTreasury。Withtheopeningofofficialrecords,manyofthepapersthathewrotehavebecomeavailable。From1919onwards,throughouttherestofhislife,Keyneshadthehelpofasecretary¾;formanyyearsMrsStevens。Thusforthelasttwenty-fiveyearsofhisworkinglifewehaveinmostcasesthecarboncopiesofhisownlettersaswellastheoriginalsofthelettersthathereceived。
  Therewere,ofcourse,occasionsduringthisperiodonwhichKeyneswrotehimselfinhisownhandwriting。Insomeofthesecases,withthehelpofhiscorrespondents,wehavebeenabletocollectthewholeofbothsidesofsomeimportantinterchangeandwehavebeenanxious,injusticetobothcorrespondents,toseethatbothsidesofthecorrespondencearepublishedinfull。
  ThesecondmainsourceofinformationhasbeenagroupofscrapbookskeptoveraverylongperiodofyearsbyKeynes'smother,FlorenceKeynes,wifeofNevilleKeynes。From1919onwardsthesescrapbookscontainalmostthewholeofMaynardKeynes'smoreephemeralwriting,hisletterstonewspapersandagreatdealofmaterialwhichenablesonetoseenotonlywhathewrote,butthereactionofotherstohiswriting。WithouttheseverycarefullykeptscrapbooksthetaskofanyeditororbiographerofKeyneswouldhavebeenimmenselymoredifficult。
  Theplanoftheedition,asatpresentintended,isthis。Itwilltotaltwenty-fivevolumes。Ofthese,thefirsteightwillbeKeynes'spublishedbooksfromIndianCurrencyandFinance,in1913,totheGeneralTheoryin1936,withtheadditionofhisTreatiseonProbability。
  Therewillnextfollow,asvols。IXandx,EssaysinPersuasionandEssaysinBiography,[Pagexii]THEGENERALTHEORYOFEMPLOYMENT
  graphy,representingKeynes'sowncollectionsofarticles。EssaysinPersuasionwilldifferfromtheoriginalprintingintworespects:
  itwillcontainthefulltextsofthearticlesorpamphletsincludedinitandnotasintheoriginalprintingabbreviatedversionsofthesearticles,anditwillhaveaddedoneortwolaterarticleswhichareofexactlythesamecharacterasthoseincludedbyKeynesinhisoriginalcollection。InthecaseofEssaysinBiography,weshalladdoneortwootherbiographicalstudiesthatKeyneswrotelaterthan1933。
  Therewillfollowfourvolumes,XItoXIV,ofeconomicarticlesandcorrespondence,andonevolumeofsocial,politicalandliterarywritings。
  WeshallincludeinthesevolumessuchpartofKeynes'seconomiccorrespondenceasiscloselyassociatedwiththearticlesthatareprintedinthem。
  Thefurtherninevolumes,asweestimateatpresent,willdealwithKeynes'sActivitiesduringtheyearsfromthebeginningofhispubliclifein1905untilhisdeath。Ineachoftheperiodsintowhichweproposetodividethismaterial,thevolumeconcernedwillpublishhismoreephemeralwritings,allofithithertouncollected,hiscorrespondencerelatingtotheseactivities,andsuchothermaterialandcorrespondenceasisnecessarytotheunderstandingofKeynes'sactivities。ThesevolumesarebeingeditedbyElizabethJohnsonandDonaldMoggridge,anditistheirtasktotraceandinterpretKeynes'sactivitiessufficientlytomakethematerialfullyintelligibletoalatergeneration。Untilthisworkhasprogressedfurther,itisnotpossibletosaywithexactitudewhetherthismaterialwillbedistributed,aswenowthink,overninevolumes,orwhetheritwillneedtobespreadoverafurthervolumeorvolumes。Therewillbeafinalvolumeofbibliographyandindex。
  Thoseresponsibleforthiseditionhavebeen:LordKahn,bothasLordKeynes'sexecutorandasalongandintimatefriendofLordKeynes,abletohelpintheinterpretingofmuchthatwouldotherwisebemisunderstood;
  SirRoyHarrodastheauthorofhisbiography;AustinRobinsonasKeynes'sco-editorontheEconomicJournalandsuccessorassecretaryoftheRoyalEconomicSociety。Theinitialeditorial[Pagexiii]GENERALINTRODUCTION
  taskswerecarriedbyElizabethJohnson。MorerecentlyshehasbeenjoinedinthisresponsibilitybyDonaldMoggridge。TheyhavebeenassistedatdifferenttimesbyJaneThistlethwaite,MrsMcDonald,whowasoriginallyresponsibleforthesystematicorderingofthefilesoftheKeynespapers;
  JudithMasterman,whoformanyyearsworkedwithMrsJohnsononthepapers;
  andmorerecentlybySusanWilsher,MargaretButler,andBarbaraLowe。GeneralIntroduction[Pageix]
  GENERALINTRODUCTION
  ThisnewstandardeditionofTheCollectedWritingsofJohnMaynardKeynesformsthememorialtohimoftheRoyalEconomicSociety。HedevotedaverylargeshareofhisbusylifetotheSociety。In1911,attheageoftwenty-eight,hebecameeditoroftheEconomicJournalinsuccessiontoEdgeworth;twoyearslaterhewasmadesecretaryaswell。
  Heheldtheseofficeswithoutintermittenceuntilalmosttheendofhislife。
  Edgeworth,itistrue,returnedtohelphimwiththeeditorshipfrom1919to1925;MacGregortookEdgeworth'splaceuntil1934,whenAustinRobinsonsucceededhimandcontinuedtoassistKeynesdownto1945。ButthroughalltheseyearsKeyneshimselfcarriedthemajorresponsibilityandmadetheprincipaldecisionsaboutthearticlesthatweretoappearintheEconomicJournal,withoutanybreaksaveforoneortwoissueswhenhewasseriouslyillin1937。ItwasonlyafewmonthsbeforehisdeathatEaster1946thathewaselectedpresidentandhandedoverhiseditorshiptoRoyHarrodandthesecretaryshiptoAustinRobinson。
  InhisdualcapacityofeditorandsecretaryKeynesplayedamajorpartinframingthepoliciesoftheRoyalEconomicSociety。ItwasverylargelyduetohimthatsomeofthemajorpublishingactivitiesoftheSociety¾;Sraffa'seditionofRicardo,Stark'seditionoftheeconomicwritingsofBentham,andGuillebaud'seditionofMarshall,aswellasanumberofearlierpublicationsinthe1930s¾;wereinitiated。
  WhenKeynesdiedin1946itwasnaturalthattheRoyalEconomicSocietyshouldwishtocommemoratehim。ItwasperhapsequallynaturalthattheSocietychosetocommemoratehimbyproducinganeditionofhiscollectedworks。
  Keyneshimselfhadalwaystakenajoyinfineprinting,andtheSociety,withthehelpofMessrsMacmillanaspublishersandtheCambridgeUniversityPressasprinters,hasbeenanxioustogiveKeynes'swritingsapermanentformthatiswhollyworthyofhim。
  Thepresenteditionwillpublishasmuchasispossibleof[Pagex]THE
  GENERALTHEORYOFEMPLOYMENT
  hisworkinthefieldofeconomics。Itwillnotincludeanyprivateandpersonalcorrespondenceorpublishlettersinthepossessionofhisfamily。Theeditionisconcerned,thatistosay,withKeynesasaneconomist。
  Keynes'swritingsfallintofivebroadcategories。First,therearethebookswhichhewroteandpublishedasbooks。Second,therearecollectionsofarticlesandpamphletswhichhehimselfmadeduringhislifetimeEssaysinPersuasionandEssaysinBiography。Third,thereisaveryconsiderablevolumeofpublishedbutuncollectedwritings¾;articleswrittenfornewspapers,letterstonewspapers,articlesinjournalsthathavenotbeenincludedinhistwovolumesofcollections,andvariouspamphlets。
  Fourth,thereareafewhithertounpublishedwritings。Fifth,thereiscorrespondencewitheconomistsandconcernedwitheconomicsorpublicaffairs。
  ThisserieswillattempttopublishacompleterecordofKeynes'sseriouswritingasaneconomist。Itistheintentiontopublishalmostcompletelythewholeofthefirstfourcategorieslistedabove。TheonlyexceptionsareafewsyndicatedarticleswhereKeyneswrotealmostthesamematerialforpublicationindifferentnewspapersorindifferentcountries,withminorandunimportantvariations。Inthesecases,thisserieswillpublishoneonlyofthevariations,choosingthemostinteresting。
  ThepublicationofKeynes'seconomiccorrespondencemustinevitablybeselective。Inthedayofthetypewriterandthefilingcabinetandparticularlyinthecaseofsoactiveandbusyaman,topublisheveryscrapofpaperthathemayhavedictatedaboutsomeunimportantorephemeralmatterisimpossible。Weareaimingtocollectandpublishasmuchaspossible,however,ofthecorrespondenceinwhichKeynesdevelopedhisownideasinargumentwithhisfelloweconomists,aswellasthemoresignificantcorrespondenceattimeswhenKeyneswasinthemiddleofpublicaffairs。
  Apartfromhispublishedbooks,themainsourcesavailabletothosepreparingthisserieshavebeentwo。First,KeynesinhiswillmadeRichardKahnhisexecutorandresponsiblefor[Pagexi]GENERAL
  INTRODUCTION
  hiseconomicpapers。TheyhavebeenplacedintheMarshallLibraryoftheUniversityofCambridgeandhavebeenavailableforthisedition。Until1914Keynesdidnothaveasecretaryandhisearliestpapersareinthemainlimitedtodraftsofimportantlettersthathemadeinhisownhandwritingandretained。Atthatstagemostofthecorrespondencethatwepossessisrepresentedbywhathereceivedratherthanbywhathewrote。Duringtheyears1914-18and1940-46
  KeyneswasservingintheTreasury。Withtheopeningofofficialrecords,manyofthepapersthathewrotehavebecomeavailable。From1919onwards,throughouttherestofhislife,Keyneshadthehelpofasecretary¾;formanyyearsMrsStevens。Thusforthelasttwenty-fiveyearsofhisworkinglifewehaveinmostcasesthecarboncopiesofhisownlettersaswellastheoriginalsofthelettersthathereceived。
  Therewere,ofcourse,occasionsduringthisperiodonwhichKeyneswrotehimselfinhisownhandwriting。Insomeofthesecases,withthehelpofhiscorrespondents,wehavebeenabletocollectthewholeofbothsidesofsomeimportantinterchangeandwehavebeenanxious,injusticetobothcorrespondents,toseethatbothsidesofthecorrespondencearepublishedinfull。
  ThesecondmainsourceofinformationhasbeenagroupofscrapbookskeptoveraverylongperiodofyearsbyKeynes'smother,FlorenceKeynes,wifeofNevilleKeynes。From1919onwardsthesescrapbookscontainalmostthewholeofMaynardKeynes'smoreephemeralwriting,hisletterstonewspapersandagreatdealofmaterialwhichenablesonetoseenotonlywhathewrote,butthereactionofotherstohiswriting。WithouttheseverycarefullykeptscrapbooksthetaskofanyeditororbiographerofKeyneswouldhavebeenimmenselymoredifficult。
  Theplanoftheedition,asatpresentintended,isthis。Itwilltotaltwenty-fivevolumes。Ofthese,thefirsteightwillbeKeynes'spublishedbooksfromIndianCurrencyandFinance,in1913,totheGeneralTheoryin1936,withtheadditionofhisTreatiseonProbability。
  Therewillnextfollow,asvols。IXandx,EssaysinPersuasionandEssaysinBiography,[Pagexii]THEGENERALTHEORYOFEMPLOYMENT
  graphy,representingKeynes'sowncollectionsofarticles。EssaysinPersuasionwilldifferfromtheoriginalprintingintworespects:
  itwillcontainthefulltextsofthearticlesorpamphletsincludedinitandnotasintheoriginalprintingabbreviatedversionsofthesearticles,anditwillhaveaddedoneortwolaterarticleswhichareofexactlythesamecharacterasthoseincludedbyKeynesinhisoriginalcollection。InthecaseofEssaysinBiography,weshalladdoneortwootherbiographicalstudiesthatKeyneswrotelaterthan1933。
  Therewillfollowfourvolumes,XItoXIV,ofeconomicarticlesandcorrespondence,andonevolumeofsocial,politicalandliterarywritings。
  WeshallincludeinthesevolumessuchpartofKeynes'seconomiccorrespondenceasiscloselyassociatedwiththearticlesthatareprintedinthem。
  Thefurtherninevolumes,asweestimateatpresent,willdealwithKeynes'sActivitiesduringtheyearsfromthebeginningofhispubliclifein1905untilhisdeath。Ineachoftheperiodsintowhichweproposetodividethismaterial,thevolumeconcernedwillpublishhismoreephemeralwritings,allofithithertouncollected,hiscorrespondencerelatingtotheseactivities,andsuchothermaterialandcorrespondenceasisnecessarytotheunderstandingofKeynes'sactivities。ThesevolumesarebeingeditedbyElizabethJohnsonandDonaldMoggridge,anditistheirtasktotraceandinterpretKeynes'sactivitiessufficientlytomakethematerialfullyintelligibletoalatergeneration。Untilthisworkhasprogressedfurther,itisnotpossibletosaywithexactitudewhetherthismaterialwillbedistributed,aswenowthink,overninevolumes,orwhetheritwillneedtobespreadoverafurthervolumeorvolumes。Therewillbeafinalvolumeofbibliographyandindex。
  Thoseresponsibleforthiseditionhavebeen:LordKahn,bothasLordKeynes'sexecutorandasalongandintimatefriendofLordKeynes,abletohelpintheinterpretingofmuchthatwouldotherwisebemisunderstood;
  SirRoyHarrodastheauthorofhisbiography;AustinRobinsonasKeynes'sco-editorontheEconomicJournalandsuccessorassecretaryoftheRoyalEconomicSociety。Theinitialeditorial[Pagexiii]GENERALINTRODUCTION
  taskswerecarriedbyElizabethJohnson。MorerecentlyshehasbeenjoinedinthisresponsibilitybyDonaldMoggridge。TheyhavebeenassistedatdifferenttimesbyJaneThistlethwaite,MrsMcDonald,whowasoriginallyresponsibleforthesystematicorderingofthefilesoftheKeynespapers;
  JudithMasterman,whoformanyyearsworkedwithMrsJohnsononthepapers;
  andmorerecentlybySusanWilsher,MargaretButler,andBarbaraLowe。EditorialIntroduction[Pagexv]
  EDITORIALINTRODUCTION
  'Ihavebeenmuchpre-occupiedwiththecausation,sotospeak,ofmyprogressofmindfromtheclassicalpositiontomypresentviews,¾;withtheorderinwhichtheproblemdevelopedinmymind。WhatsomepeopletreatasanunnecessarilycontroversialtoneisreallyduetotheimportanceinmyownmindofwhatIusedtobelieve,andofthemomentsoftransitionwhichwereformepersonallymomentsofillumination……Youdon'tmentioneffectivedemandor,moreprecisely,thedemandscheduleforoutputasawhole,exceptinsofarasitisimplicitinthemultiplier。Tome,regardedhistorically,themostextraordinarythingisthecompletedisappearanceofthetheoryofdemandandsupplyforoutputasawhole,i。e。thetheoryofemployment,afterithadbeenforaquarterofacenturythemostdiscussedthingineconomics。Oneofthemostimportanttransitionsforme,aftermyTreatiseonMoneyhadbeenpublished,wassuddenlyrealisingthis。ItonlycameafterIhadenunciatedtomyselfthepsychologicallawthat,whenincomeincreases,thegapbetweenincomeandconsumptionwillincrease,¾;aconclusionofvastimportancetomyownthinkingbutnotapparently,expressedjustlikethat,toanyoneelse's。Then,appreciablylater,camethenotionofinterestbeingthemeasureofliquiditypreference,whichbecamequiteclearinmymindthemomentIthoughtofit。Andlastofall,afteranimmenselotofmuddlingandmanydrafts,theproperdefinitionofthemarginalefficiencyofcapitallinkeduponethingwithanother。'
  Withthesewords,KeynestoldR。F。Harrodinthesummerof1936thedevelopmentofhisideastowardstheGeneralTheory。'[1]
  TheoriginsoftheGeneralTheorylieinKeynes'sdissatisfactionwithhisTreatiseonMoneyevenatthetimeofpublication[2],intheprolongedinternationalslumpoftheyears[Pagexvi]THEGENERALTHEORYOFEMPLOYMENT
  after1929,andinthestimulationthatemanatedfroma'circus'ofyoungCambridgeeconomistswhobeganmeetingsoonafterthepublicationoftheTreatisetodiscussanddissectitstwovolumes。Itwasthediscussionswithinthisgroup,retailedtohimbyRichardKahn,thatprovidedthebasisforthefirsttransitionalstagebetweentheTreatiseandtheGeneralTheory。'[3]
  ThisstagewassoonfollowedbyKeynes'sexplicitcommitmenttorevisethetheoreticalfoundationsoftheTreatise,whichhadonlydealtincidentallyintermsofmovementsinoutput。ThusinhisprefaceforJapanesereadersoftheTreatise,datedApril1932,KeynesnotedthatratherthanrevisehisTreatiseheproposed'topublishashortbookofapurelytheoreticalcharacter,extendingandcorrectingthetheoreticalbasisofmyviewsassetforthinBooksIIIandIV'。[4]Thiscommitmentbecameclearerintheautumnof1932,whenKeyneschangedthetitleofhiscourseoflecturesfrom'ThePureTheoryofMoney',theirtitlesincetheautumnof1929,to'TheMonetaryTheoryofProduction',thetitletheyweretohaveuntil1934。Theselectureswereconcernedwithmovementsinoutputasawholeandhadthebeginningsoftheconceptofliquiditypreference,althoughitwasnotuntilhislecturesintheautumnof1933thatittooktheformusedintheGeneralTheory。
  ThefirstmajorpublishedindicationsofthedirectionKeynes'sthoughtwastakingbetweentheTreatiseandtheGeneralTheorycamein1933intheformofanessay'TheMonetaryTheoryofProduction',apamphlet'TheMeanstoProsperity',anarticle'TheMultiplier'whichisincludedintheAmericaneditionof'TheMeanstoProsperity',andabiographicalsketchofT。R。Malthus,[5]allofwhicharecastintermsofmovementsofoutputasawholeandreflecteddissatisfactionwithacceptedtheory。
  ThusthemajorbuildingblocksoftheGeneralTheoryhad[Pagexvii]EDITORIALINTRODUCTION
  beensteadilyaccumulatingeversince1931。Bythespringof1934,infact,allofthemwereinplace,exceptfortheideaofthemarginalefficiencyofcapital,asisclearfromdraftsfromthatperiodandaworkingpaperKeynespreparedduringhisVisittoAmericainMayandJune。[6]Itwasonlyduringthesummerof1934,however,thatthefinalpiecefellintoplace,andbytheautumnKeyneswasdeliveringhislectures,nowentitled'TheGeneralTheoryofEmployment'fromproofsheets。
  However,beforepublicationtherewastobeanotheryearofintensediscussionandredrafting。KeynescirculatedproofsofthebooktoR。F。
  Kahn,JoanRobinson,R。F。Harrod,D。H。RobertsonandR。G。Hawtreyandtookcarefulnoteoftheircommentsandsuggestedimprovements,statingclearlyhispointsofdisagreementwhenhedidnotadoptthem。[7]ThusitwasafteralmostfiveyearsofintensepreparationthatthebookappearedinFebruary1936atapriceof5shillingstoencouragealargesaleamongstudents。
  Afterpublicationtherewasstillfurtherdiscussionand,occasionally,controversy。Keyneshimselfencouragedthisdiscussion,for,asheputit[8]
  IammoreattachedtothecomparativelysimplefundamentalideaswhichunderliemytheorythantotheparticularformsinwhichIhaveembodiedthem,andhavenodesirethatthelattershouldbecrystallizedatthepresentstageofthedebate。Ifthesimplebasicideascanbecomefamiliarandacceptable,timeandexperienceandthecollaborationofanumberofmindswilldiscoverthebestwayofexpressingthem。
  Inthisspirit,Keynesenteredintoconsiderablecorrespondencewithcritics,expositorsandextendersofhisideas。[9]Moreover,asthedebateprogressed,hisownideaswerechangingandbyAugust1936hewaswritingtoR。G。Hawtrey[10]
  [Pagexviii]THEGENERALTHEORYOFEMPLOYMENT
  ImaymentionthatIamthinkingofproducinginthecourseofthenextyearorsowhatmightbecalledfootnotestomypreviousbook,dealingwithvariouscriticismsandvariouspointswhichwantcarryingfurther。
  Ofcourse,infact,thewholebookwantsre-writingandrecasting。ButIamstillnotinasufficientlychangedstateofmindasyettobeinthepositiontodothat。OntheotherhandIcandealwithspecificpoints。
  Fromthisperiod,wehaveonedrafttableofcontentstoabookentitledFootnotestoTheGeneralTheoryofEmploymentInterestandMoney,atitlethatechoeshisfirstdrafttableofcontentsafterEconomicConsequencesofthePeace。[11]HealsousedthistitleforthelectureshedeliveredinCambridgeinthespringof1937,fromwhichdraftsoftwolecturessurvive。[12]InfactheseemstohavebeenmakingconsiderableprogresstowardssteppingoutsidetheGeneralTheorybythattime,forhetoldJoanRobinsoninApril1937[13]
  Iamgraduallygettingmyselfintoanoutsidepositiontowardsthebook,andamfeelingmywaytonewlinesofexposition。PerhapsyouwillseewhatIhaveinmindinmyforthcominglectures。
  Unfortunately,theproposed'footnotes'nevergotbeyondthelectures,forKeynessufferedasevereheartattackintheearlysummerof1937andwasneverabletoworkatanythingnearhisoldpaceuntilwarcamein1939¾;andthenhisenergiesweredirectedinotherdirections。HowhewouldhaverevisedtheGeneralTheoryifhehadremainedingoodhealthisimpossibletoguess。Onecanonlybecertainthathewouldhaverevisedit。
  SinceitspublicationinBritaininFebruary1936,theGeneralTheoryhasbeenpublishedintheUnitedStatesoriginallyfromsheetsprintedinEnglandandtranslatedintoGerman,Japanese,French,Spanish,Czech,Italian,Serbo-Croat,Hindi,Finnish,Roumanian,HungarianandRussian。
  TheGerman,FrenchandJapaneseeditionsallcarriedspecialadditionalprefaceswhichfollowedtheoriginalEnglishpreface。Theseadditionalprefacesareprintedbelow。
  [Pagexix]EDITORIALINTRODUCTION
  ThiseditionfollowsthereprintedEnglishfirstedition,whichdiffersfromthefirstEnglishprintinginthatacorrectiontolines23-5
  ofpage123wasmovedfromanerratumnotefollowingtheindexintothetextandcorrectionsweremadetopages44,113,176,357。InAppendixIwehaveintroducedalistofminortextualcorrectionsfromthereprintedfirstedition。Inaddition,inAppendices2and3wereprintKeynes'sarticles'FluctuationsinNetInvestmentintheUnitedStates'and'RelativeMovementsofRealWagesandOutput'whichdealwitherrorsonpages103-4
  and9-10respectivelyofthetextitself。ForfurtherdiscussionoftheGeneralTheoryanditsgenesis,thereaderisreferredtovolumesxiiiandxiv。
  Inprintingthisvolumewehavemadeitourfirstobjectivetofollowaspreciselyaspossiblethepaginationoftheoriginaledition。Animmenseliteratureofdetailedcriticismandanalysishasgrownuparoundthetextoftheoriginaleditionandwehavebeenanxiousthatreferencesinthatliteratureshouldapplyequallytothisnewedition。Thishasmeantthatwehavebeenunabletofollowpreciselythestandardtypographyoftheothervolumesintheseries。Thegainofreadyreference,inourview,justifiesthiscourse。Asinothervolumesoftheseries,wehavereducedtheexcessivecapitalisationfavouredbyKeynes'soriginalprinters,butirritatingtoamoderneye。
  Preface[Pagexxi]
  PREFACE
  Thisbookischieflyaddressedtomyfelloweconomists。Ihopethatitwillbeintelligibletoothers。Butitsmainpurposeistodealwithdifficultquestionsoftheory,andonlyinthesecondplacewiththeapplicationsofthistheorytopractice。Foriforthodoxeconomicsisatfault,theerroristobefoundnotinthesuperstructure,whichhasbeenerectedwithgreatcareforlogicalconsistency,butinalackofclearnessandofgeneralityinthepremisses。ThusIcannotachievemyobjectofpersuadingeconomiststore-examinecriticallycertainoftheirbasicassumptionsexceptbyahighlyabstractargumentandalsobymuchcontroversy。Iwishtherecouldhavebeenlessofthelatter。ButIhavethoughtitimportant,notonlytoexplainmyownpointofview,butalsotoshowinwhatrespectsitdepartsfromtheprevailingtheory。Those,whoarestronglyweddedtowhatIshallcall'theclassicaltheory',willfluctuate,Iexpect,betweenabeliefthatIamquitewrongandabeliefthatIamsayingnothingnew。
  Itisforotherstodetermineifeitheroftheseorthethirdalternativeisright。Mycontroversialpassagesareaimedatprovidingsomematerialforananswer;andImustaskforgivenessIf,inthepursuitofsharpdistinctions,mycontroversyisitselftookeen。ImyselfheldwithconvictionformanyyearsthetheorieswhichInowattack,andIamnot,Ithink,ignorantoftheirstrongpoints。
  Themattersatissueareofanimportancewhichcannotbeexaggerated。
  But,ifmyexplanationsareright,itismyfelloweconomists,notthegeneralpublic,whomImustfirstconvince。Atthisstageoftheargumentthegeneralpublic,thoughwelcomeatthedebate,areonlyeavesdroppersatanattemptbyaneconomisttobringtoanissuethedeepdivergencesofopinionbetweenfelloweconomistswhichhaveforthetimebeingalmostdestroyedthepracticalinfluenceofeconomictheory,andwill,untiltheyareresolved,continuetodoso。
  TherelationbetweenthisbookandmyTreatiseonMoney[Pagexxii]THEGENERALTHEORYOFEMPLOYMENT
  [JMKvols。vandvi],whichIpublishedfiveyearsago,isprobablyclearertomyselfthanitwillbetoothers;andwhatinmyownmindisanaturalevolutioninalineofthoughtwhichIhavebeenpursuingforseveralyears,maysometimesstrikethereaderasaconfusingchangeofview。ThisdifficultyisnotmadelessbycertainchangesinterminologywhichIhavefeltcompelledtomake。ThesechangesoflanguageIhavepointedoutinthecourseofthefollowingpages;butthegeneralrelationshipbetweenthetwobookscanbeexpressedbrieflyasfollows。WhenIbegantowritemyTreatiseonMoneyIwasstillmovingalongthetraditionallinesofregardingtheinfluenceofmoneyassomethingsotospeakseparatefromthegeneraltheoryofsupplyanddemand。WhenIfinishedit,Ihadmadesomeprogresstowardspushingmonetarytheorybacktobecomingatheoryofoutputasawhole。Butmylackofemancipationfrompreconceivedideasshoweditselfinwhatnowseemstometobetheoutstandingfaultofthetheoreticalpartsofthatworknamely,BooksIIIandIV,thatIfailedtodealthoroughlywiththeeffectsofchangesinthelevelofoutput。
  Myso-called'fundamentalequationswereaninstantaneouspicturetakenontheassumptionofagivenoutput。Theyattemptedtoshowhow,assumingthegivenoutput,forcescoulddevelopwhichinvolvedaprofit-disequilibrium,andthusrequiredachangeinthelevelofoutput。Butthedynamicdevelopment,asdistinctfromtheinstantaneouspicture,wasleftincompleteandextremelyconfused。Thisbook,ontheotherhand,hasevolvedintowhatisprimarilyastudyoftheforceswhichdeterminechangesinthescaleofoutputandemploymentasawhole;and,whilstitisfoundthatmoneyentersintotheeconomicschemeinanessentialandpeculiarmanner,technicalmonetarydetailfallsintothebackground。Amonetaryeconomy,weshallfind,isessentiallyoneinwhichchangingviewsaboutthefuturearecapableofinfluencingthequantityofemploymentandnotmerelyitsdirection。Butourmethodofanalysingtheeconomicbehaviourofthepresentundertheinfluenceofchangingideasaboutthefutureisonewhichdependsontheinteractionofsupplyanddemand,andisin[Pagexxiii]PREFACE
  thiswaylinkedupwithourfundamentaltheoryofvalue。Wearethusledtoamoregeneraltheory,whichincludestheclassicaltheorywithwhichwearefamiliar,asaspecialcase。
  Thewriterofabooksuchasthis,treadingalongunfamiliarpaths,isextremelydependentoncriticismandconversationifheistoavoidanundueproportionofmistakes。Itisastonishingwhatfoolishthingsonecantemporarilybelieveifonethinkstoolongalone,particularlyineconomicsalongwiththeothermoralsciences,whereitisoftenimpossibletobringone'sideastoaconclusivetesteitherformalorexperimental。
  Inthisbook,evenmoreperhapsthaninwritingmyTreatiseonMoney,IhavedependedontheconstantadviceandconstructivecriticismofMrR。F。Kahn。Thereisagreatdealinthisbookwhichwouldnothavetakentheshapeithasexceptathissuggestion。IhavealsohadmuchhelpfromMrsJoanRobinson,MrR。G。HawtreyandMrR。F。Harrod,whohavereadthewholeoftheproof-sheets。TheindexhasbeencompiledbyMrD。M。Bensusan-ButtofKing'sCollege,Cambridge。
  Thecompositionofthisbookhasbeenfortheauthoralongstruggleofescape,andsomustthereadingofitbeformostreadersiftheauthor'sassaultuponthemistobesuccessful,¾;astruggleofescapefromhabitualmodesofthoughtandexpression。Theideaswhicharehereexpressedsolaboriouslyareextremelysimpleandshouldbeobvious。Thedifficultylies,notinthenewideas,butinescapingfromtheoldones,whichramify,forthosebroughtupasmostofushavebeen,intoeverycornerofourminds。
  J。M。KEYNES
  13December1935
  PrefacetoJapaneseEdition[Pagexxix]
  PREFACETOTHEJAPANESEEDITION
  AlfredMarshall,onwhosePrinciplesofEconomicsallcontemporaryEnglisheconomistshavebeenbroughtup,wasatparticularpainstoemphasisethecontinuityofhisthoughtwithRicardo's。HisworklargelyconsistedingraftingthemarginalprincipleandtheprincipleofsubstitutionontotheRicardiantradition;andhistheoryofoutputandconsumptionasawhole,asdistinctfromhistheoryoftheproductionanddistributionofagivenoutput,wasneverseparatelyexpounded。Whetherhehimselffelttheneedofsuchatheory,Iamnotsure。Buthisimmediatesuccessorsandfollowershavecertainlydispensedwithitandhavenot,apparently,feltthelackofit。ItwasinthisatmospherethatIwasbroughtup。I
  taughtthesedoctrinesmyselfanditisonlywithinthelastdecadethatIhavebeenconsciousoftheirinsufficiency。Inmyownthoughtanddevelopment,therefore,thisbookrepresentsareaction,atransitionawayfromtheEnglishclassicalororthodoxtradition。MyemphasisuponthisinthefollowingpagesanduponthepointsofmydivergencefromreceiveddoctrinehasbeenregardedinsomequartersinEnglandasundulycontroversial。
  ButhowcanonebroughtupinEnglisheconomicorthodoxy,indeedapriestofthatfaithatonetime,avoidsomecontroversialemphasis,whenhefirstbecomesaProtestant?
  PerhapsJapanesereaders,however,willneitherrequirenorresistmyassaultsagainsttheEnglishtradition。WearewellawareofthelargescaleonwhichEnglisheconomicwritingsarereadinJapan,butwearenotsowellinformedastohowJapaneseopinionsregardthem。TherecentpraiseworthyenterpriseonthepartoftheInternationalEconomicCircleofTokyoinreprintingMalthus's'PrinciplesofPoliticalEconomy'asthefirstvolumeintheTokyoSeriesofReprintsencouragesmetothinkthatabookwhichtracesitsdescentfromMalthusratherthanRicardomaybereceivedwithsympathyinsomequartersatleast。
  [Pagexxx]THEGENERALTHEORYOFEMPLOYMENT
  AtanyrateIamgratefultotheOrientalEconomistformakingitpossibleformetoapproachJapanesereaderswithouttheextrahandicapofaforeignlanguage。
  J。M。KEYNES
  4December1936
  PrefacetoGermanEdition[Pagexxv]
  PREFACETOTHEGERMANEDITION
  AlfredMarshall,onwhosePrinciplesofEconomicsallcontemporaryEnglisheconomistshavebeenbroughtup,wasatparticularpainstoemphasisethecontinuityofhisthoughtwithRicardo's。HisworklargelyconsistedingraftingthemarginalprincipleandtheprincipleofsubstitutionontotheRicardiantradition;andhistheoryofoutputandconsumptionasawhole,asdistinctfromhistheoryoftheproductionanddistributionofagivenoutput,wasneverseparatelyexpounded。Whetherhehimselffelttheneedofsuchatheory,Iamnotsure。Buthisimmediatesuccessorsandfollowershavecertainlydispensedwithitandhavenot,apparently,feltthelackofit。ItwasinthisatmospherethatIwasbroughtup。I
  taughtthesedoctrinesmyselfanditisonlywithinthelastdecadethatIhavebeenconsciousoftheirinsufficiency。Inmyownthoughtanddevelopment,therefore,thisbookrepresentsareaction,atransitionawayfromtheEnglishclassicalororthodoxtradition。MyemphasisuponthisinthefollowingpagesanduponthepointsofmydivergencefromreceiveddoctrinehasbeenregardedinsomequartersinEnglandasundulycontroversial。
  ButhowcanonebroughtupaCatholicinEnglisheconomics,indeedapriestofthatfaith,avoidsomecontroversialemphasis,whenhefirstbecomesaProtestant?
  ButIfancythatallthismayimpressGermanreaderssomewhatdifferently。
  Theorthodoxtradition,whichruledinnineteenthcenturyEngland,nevertooksofirmaholdofGermanthought。TherehavealwaysexistedimportantschoolsofeconomistsinGermanywhohavestronglydisputedtheadequacyoftheclassicaltheoryfortheanalysisofcontemporaryevents。TheManchesterSchoolandMarxismbothderiveultimatelyfromRicardo,¾;aconclusionwhichisonlysuperficiallysurprising。ButinGermanytherehasalwaysexistedalargesectionofopinionwhichhasadheredneithertotheonenortotheother。
  Itcanscarcelybeclaimed,however,thatthisschoolof[Pagexxvi]THEGENERALTHEORYOFEMPLOYMENT
  thoughthaserectedarivaltheoreticalconstruction;orhasevenattemptedtodoso。Ithasbeensceptical,realistic,contentwithhistoricalandempiricalmethodsandresults,whichdiscardformalanalysis。ThemostimportantunorthodoxdiscussionontheoreticallineswasthatofWicksell。
  HisbookswereavailableinGermanastheywerenot,untillately,inEnglish;indeedoneofthemostimportantofthemwaswritteninGerman。
  ButhisfollowerswerechieflySwedesandAustrians,thelatterof。whomcombinedhisideaswithspecificallyAustriantheorysoastobringthemineffect,backagaintowardstheclassicaltradition。ThusGermany,quitecontrarytoherhabitinmostofthesciences,hasbeencontentforawholecenturytodowithoutanyformaltheoryofeconomicswhichwaspredominantandgenerallyaccepted。
  Perhaps,therefore,ImayexpectlessresistancefromGerman,thanfromEnglish,readersinofferingatheoryofemploymentandoutputasawhole,whichdepartsinimportantrespectsfromtheorthodoxtradition。ButcanIhopetoovercomeGermany'seconomicagnosticism?CanIpersuadeGermaneconomiststhatmethodsofformalanalysishavesomethingimportanttocontributetotheinterpretationofcontemporaryeventsandtothemouldingofcontemporarypolicy?Afterall,itisGermantolikeatheory。HowhungryandthirstyGermaneconomistsmustfeelafterhavinglivedalltheseyearswithoutone!Certainly,itisworthwhileformetomaketheattempt。AndifIcancontributesomestraymorselstowardsthepreparationbyGermaneconomistsofafullrepastoftheorydesignedtomeetspecificallyGermanconditions,Ishallbecontent。ForIconfessthatmuchofthefollowingbookisillustratedandexpoundedmainlywithreferencetotheconditionsexistingintheAnglo-Saxoncountries。
  Neverthelessthetheoryofoutputasawhole,whichiswhatthefollowingbookpurportstoprovide,ismuchmoreeasilyadaptedtotheconditionsofatotalitarianstate,thanisthetheoryoftheproductionanddistributionofagivenoutputproducedunderconditionsoffreecompetitionandalargemeasureoflaissez-faire。Thetheoryofthepsychologi-
  [Pagexxvii]PREFACETOTHEGERMANEDITION
  callawsrelatingconsumptionandsaving,theinfluenceofloanexpenditureonpricesandrealwages,thepartplayedbytherateofinterest¾;theseremainasnecessaryingredientsinourschemeofthought。
  ItakethisopportunitytoacknowledgemyindebtednesstotheexcellentworkofmytranslatorHerrWaegerIhopehisvocabularyattheendofthisvolume[14]mayproveusefulbeyonditsimmediatepurposeandtomypublishers,MessrsDunckerandHumblot,whoseenterprise,fromthedaysnowsixteenyearsagowhentheypublishedmyEconomicConsequencesofthePeace,hasenabledmetomaintaincontactwithGermanreaders。
  J。M。KEYNES
  7September1936
  PrefacetoJapaneseEdition[Pagexxix]
  PREFACETOTHEJAPANESEEDITION
  AlfredMarshall,onwhosePrinciplesofEconomicsallcontemporaryEnglisheconomistshavebeenbroughtup,wasatparticularpainstoemphasisethecontinuityofhisthoughtwithRicardo's。HisworklargelyconsistedingraftingthemarginalprincipleandtheprincipleofsubstitutionontotheRicardiantradition;andhistheoryofoutputandconsumptionasawhole,asdistinctfromhistheoryoftheproductionanddistributionofagivenoutput,wasneverseparatelyexpounded。Whetherhehimselffelttheneedofsuchatheory,Iamnotsure。Buthisimmediatesuccessorsandfollowershavecertainlydispensedwithitandhavenot,apparently,feltthelackofit。ItwasinthisatmospherethatIwasbroughtup。I
  taughtthesedoctrinesmyselfanditisonlywithinthelastdecadethatIhavebeenconsciousoftheirinsufficiency。Inmyownthoughtanddevelopment,therefore,thisbookrepresentsareaction,atransitionawayfromtheEnglishclassicalororthodoxtradition。MyemphasisuponthisinthefollowingpagesanduponthepointsofmydivergencefromreceiveddoctrinehasbeenregardedinsomequartersinEnglandasundulycontroversial。
  ButhowcanonebroughtupinEnglisheconomicorthodoxy,indeedapriestofthatfaithatonetime,avoidsomecontroversialemphasis,whenhefirstbecomesaProtestant?
  PerhapsJapanesereaders,however,willneitherrequirenorresistmyassaultsagainsttheEnglishtradition。WearewellawareofthelargescaleonwhichEnglisheconomicwritingsarereadinJapan,butwearenotsowellinformedastohowJapaneseopinionsregardthem。TherecentpraiseworthyenterpriseonthepartoftheInternationalEconomicCircleofTokyoinreprintingMalthus's'PrinciplesofPoliticalEconomy'asthefirstvolumeintheTokyoSeriesofReprintsencouragesmetothinkthatabookwhichtracesitsdescentfromMalthusratherthanRicardomaybereceivedwithsympathyinsomequartersatleast。
  [Pagexxx]THEGENERALTHEORYOFEMPLOYMENT
  AtanyrateIamgratefultotheOrientalEconomistformakingitpossibleformetoapproachJapanesereaderswithouttheextrahandicapofaforeignlanguage。
  J。M。KEYNES
  4December1936
  PrefacetoFrenchEdition[Pagexxxi]
  PREFACETOTHEFRENCHEDITION
  Forahundredyearsorlonger,EnglishPoliticalEconomyhasbeendominatedbyanorthodoxy。Thatisnottosaythatanunchangingdoctrinehasprevailed。
  Onthecontrary。Therehasbeenaprogressiveevolutionofthedoctrine。
  Butitspresuppositions,itsatmosphere,itsmethodhaveremainedsurprisinglythesame,andaremarkablecontinuityhasbeenobservablethroughallthechanges。Inthatorthodoxy,inthatcontinuoustransition,Iwasbroughtup。Ilearntit,Itaughtit,Iwroteit。TothoselookingfromoutsideIprobablystillbelongtoit。Subsequenthistoriansofdoctrinewillregardthisbookasinessentiallythesametradition。ButImyselfinwritingit,andinotherrecentworkwhichhasleduptoit,havefeltmyselftobebreakingawayfromthisorthodoxy,tobeinstrongreactionagainstit,tobeescapingfromsomething,tobegaininganemancipation。Andthisstateofmindonmypartistheexplanationofcertainfaultsinthebook,inparticularitscontroversialnoteinsomepassages,anditsairofbeingaddressedtoomuchtotheholdersofaparticularpointofviewandtoolittleadurbemetorbem。Iwaswantingtoconvincemyownenvironmentanddidnotaddressmyselfwithsufficientdirectnesstooutsideopinion。
  Nowthreeyearslater,havinggrownaccustomedtomynewskinandhavingalmostforgottenthesmellofmyoldone,Ishould,ifIwerewritingafresh,endeavourtofreemyselffromthisfaultandstatemyownpositioninamoreclear-cutmanner。
  Isayallthis,partlytoexplainandpartlytoexcuse,myselftoFrenchreaders。ForinFrancetherehasbeennoorthodoxtraditionwiththesameauthorityovercontemporaryopinionasinmyowncountry。IntheUnitedStatesthepositionhasbeenmuchthesameasinEngland。ButinFrance,asintherestofEurope,therehasbeennosuchdominantschoolsincetheexpiryoftheschoolofFrenchLiberaleconomistswhowereintheirprimetwentyyearsagothoughtheylivedtosogreatanage,longaftertheirinfluencehadpassedaway,[Pagexxxii]THEGENERALTHEORYOFEMPLOYMENT
  thatitfelltomyduty,whenIfirstbecameayouthfuleditoroftheEconomicJournaltowritetheobituariesofmanyofthem¾;Levasseur,Molinari,Leroy-Beaulieu。IfCharlesGidehadattainedtothesameinfluenceandauthorityasAlfredMarshall,yourpositionwouldhavebornemoreresemblancetoours。Asitis,youreconomistsareeclectic,toomuchwesometimesthinkwithoutdeeprootsinsystematicthought。PerhapsthismaymakethemmoreeasilyaccessibletowhatIhavetosay。ButitmayalsohavetheresultthatmyreaderswillsometimeswonderwhatIamtalkingaboutwhenIspeak,withwhatsomeofmyEnglishcriticsconsideramisuseoflanguage,ofthe'classical'schoolofthoughtand'classical'economists。
  Itmay,therefore,behelpfultomyFrenchreadersifIattempttoindicateverybrieflywhatIregardasthemaindifferentiaeofmyapproach。
  Ihavecalledmytheoryageneraltheory。ImeanbythisthatIamchieflyconcernedwiththebehaviouroftheeconomicsystemasawhole,¾;withaggregateincomes,aggregateprofits,aggregateoutput,aggregateemployment,aggregateinvestment,aggregatesavingratherthanwiththeincomes,profits,output,employment,investmentandsavingofparticularindustries,firmsorindividuals。AndIarguethatimportantmistakeshavebeenmadethroughextendingtothesystemasawholeconclusionswhichhavebeencorrectlyarrivedatinrespectofapartofittakeninisolation。
  LetmegiveexamplesofwhatImean。Mycontentionthatforthesystemasawholetheamountofincomewhichissaved,inthesensethatitisnotspentoncurrentconsumption,isandmustnecessarilybeexactlyequaltotheamountofnetnewinvestmenthasbeenconsideredaparadoxandhasbeentheoccasionofwidespreadcontroversy。Theexplanationofthisisundoubtedlytobefoundinthefactthatthisrelationshipofequalitybetweensavingandinvestment,whichnecessarilyholdsgoodforthesystemasawhole,doesnotholdgoodatallforaparticularindividual。ThereisnoreasonwhateverwhythenewinvestmentforwhichIamresponsibleshouldbearanyrelationwhatevertotheamountofmyownsavings。Qutelegitimatelyweregardanindi-
  [Pagexxxiii]PREFACETOTHEFRENCHEDITION
  vidual'sincomeasindependentofwhathehimselfconsumesandinvests。
  Butthis,Ihavetopointout,shouldnothaveledustooverlookthefactthatthedemandarisingoutoftheconsumptionandinvestmentofoneindividualisthesourceoftheincomesofotherindividuals,sothatincomesingeneralarenotindependent,quitethecontrary,ofthedispositionofindividualstospendandinvest;andsinceinturnthereadinessofindividualstospendandinvestdependsontheirincomes,arelationshipissetupbetweenaggregatesavingsandaggregateinvestmentwhichcanbeveryeasilyshown,beyondanypossibilityofreasonabledispute,tobeoneofexactandnecessaryequality。Rightlyregardedthisisabanaleconclusion。Butitsetsinmotionatrainofthoughtfromwhichmoresubstantialmattersfollow。Itisshownthat,generallyspeaking,theactuallevelofoutputandemploymentdepends,notonthecapacitytoproduceoronthepre-existinglevelofincomes,butonthecurrentdecisionstoproducewhichdependinturnoncurrentdecisionstoinvestandonpresentexpectationsofcurrentandprospectiveconsumption。Moreover,assoonasweknowthepropensitytoconsumeandtosaveasIcallit,thatistosaytheresultforthecommunityasawholeoftheindividualpsychologicalinclinationsastohowtodisposeofgivenincomes,wecancalculatewhatlevelofincomes,andthereforewhatlevelofoutputandemployment,isinprofit-equilibriumwithagivenlevelofnewinvestment;outofwhichdevelopsthedoctrineoftheMultiplier。
  Oragain,itbecomesevidentthatanincreasedpropensitytosavewillceterisparibuscontractincomesandoutput;whilstanincreasedinducementtoinvestwillexpandthem。Wearethusabletoanalysethefactorswhichdeterminetheincomeandoutputofthesystemasawhole;¾;wehave,inthemostexactsense,atheoryofemployment。Conclusionsemergefromthisreasoningwhichareparticularlyrelevanttotheproblemsofpublicfinanceandpublicpolicygenerallyandofthetradecycle。
  Anotherfeature,speciallycharacteristicofthisbook,isthetheoryoftherateofinterest。Inrecenttimesithasbeenheldbymanyeconomiststhattherateofcurrentsavingdetermined[Pagexxxiv]THEGENERALTHEORYOFEMPLOYMENT
  thesupplyoffreecapital,thattherateofcurrentinvestmentgovernedthedemandforit,andthattherateofinterestwas,sotospeak,theequilibratingprice-factordeterminedbythepointofintersectionofthesupplycurveofsavingsandthedemandcurveofinvestment。Butifaggregatesavingisnecessarilyandinallcircumstancesexactlyequaltoaggregateinvestment,itisevidentthatthisexplanationcollapses。Wehavetosearchelsewhereforthesolution。Ifinditintheideathatitisthefunctionoftherateofinteresttopreserveequilibrium,notbetweenthedemandandthesupplyofnewcapitalgoods,butbetweenthedemandandthesupplyofmoney,thatistosaybetweenthedemandforliquidityandthemeansofsatisfyingthisdemand。Iamherereturningtothedoctrineoftheolder,pre-nineteenthcenturyeconomists。Montesquieu,forexample,sawthistruthwithconsiderableclarity,[15]¾;MontesquieuwhowastherealFrenchequivalentofAdamSmith,thegreatestofyoureconomists,headandshouldersabovethephysiocratsinpenetration,clear-headednessandgoodsensewhicharethequalitiesaneconomistshouldhave。ButImustleaveittothetextofthisbooktoshowhowindetailallthisworksout。
  IhavecalledthisbooktheGeneralTheoryofEmployment,InterestandMoney;andthethirdfeaturetowhichImaycallattentionisthetreatmentofmoneyandprices。ThefollowinganalysisregistersmyfinalescapefromtheconfusionsoftheQuantityTheory,whichonceentangledme。Iregardthepricelevelasawholeasbeingdeterminedinpreciselythesamewayasindividualprices;thatistosay,undertheinfluenceofsupplyanddemand。Technicalconditions,thelevelofwages,theextentofunusedcapacityofplantandlabour,andthestateofmarketsandcompetitiondeterminethesupplyconditionsofindividualproductsandofproductsasawhole。Thedecisionsofentrepreneurs,whichprovidetheincomesofindividualproducersandthedecisionsofthoseindividualsastothedispositionofsuchincomesdeterminethedemandconditions。Andprices¾;bothindividualpricesandtheprice-level¾;emergeastheresultantofthesetwo[Pagexxxv]PREFACETOTHEFRENCHEDITION
  factors。Money,andthequantityofmoney,arenotdirectinfluencesatthisstageoftheproceedings。Theyhavedonetheirworkatanearlierstageoftheanalysis。Thequantityofmoneydeterminesthesupplyofliquidresources,andhencetherateofinterest,andinconjunctionwithotherfactorsparticularlythatofconfidencetheinducementtoinvest,whichinturnfixestheequilibriumlevelofincomes,outputandemploymentandateachstageinconjunctionwithotherfactorstheprice-levelasawholethroughtheinfluencesofsupplyanddemandthusestablished。
  Ibelievethateconomicseverywhereuptorecenttimeshasbeendominated,muchmorethanhasbeenunderstood,bythedoctrinesassociatedwiththenameofJ-B。Say。Itistruethathis'lawofmarkets'hasbeenlongabandonedbymosteconomists;buttheyhavenotextricatedthemselvesfromhisbasicassumptionsandparticularlyfromhisfallacythatdemandiscreatedbysupply。Saywasimplicitlyassumingthattheeconomicsystemwasalwaysoperatinguptoitsfullcapacity,sothatanewactivitywasalwaysinsubstitutionfor,andneverinadditionto,someotheractivity。Nearlyallsubsequenteconomictheoryhasdependedon,inthesensethatithasrequired,thissameassumption。Yetatheorysobasedisclearlyincompetenttotackletheproblemsofunemploymentandofthetradecycle。PerhapsIcanbestexpresstoFrenchreaderswhatIclaimforthisbookbysayingthatinthetheoryofproductionitisafinalbreak-awayfromthedoctrinesofJ-B。SayandthatinthetheoryofinterestitisareturntothedoctrinesofMontesquieu。
  J。M。KEYNES
  20February1939
  King'sCollegeCambridgeTheGeneralTheory[Page3]
  Chapter1
  THEGENERALTHEORY
  IhavecalledthisbooktheGeneralTheoryofEmployment,InterestandMoney,placingtheemphasisontheprefixgeneral。Theobjectofsuchatitleistocontrastthecharacterofmyargumentsandconclusionswiththoseoftheclassical[16]theoryofthesubject,uponwhichIwasbroughtupandwhichdominatestheeconomicthought,bothpracticalandtheoretical,ofthegoverningandacademicclassesofthisgeneration,asithasforahundredyearspast。Ishallarguethatthepostulatesoftheclassicaltheoryareapplicabletoaspecialcaseonlyandnottothegeneralcase,thesituationwhichitassumesbeingalimitingpointofthepossiblepositionsofequilibrium。Moreover,thecharacteristicsofthespecialcaseassumedbytheclassicaltheoryhappennottobethoseoftheeconomicsocietyinwhichweactuallylive,withtheresultthatitsteachingismisleadinganddisastrousifweattempttoapplyittothefactsofexperience。
  PostulatesofClassicalEconomics[Page4]
  Chapter2
  THEPOSTULATESOFTHECLASSICALECONOMICS
  Mosttreatisesonthetheoryofvalueandproductionareprimarilyconcernedwiththedistributionofagivenvolumeofemployedresourcesbetweendifferentusesandwiththeconditionswhich,assumingtheemploymentofthisquantityofresources,determinetheirrelativerewardsandtherelativevaluesoftheirproducts。[17]
  Thequestion,also,ofthevolumeoftheavailableresources,inthesenseofthesizeoftheemployablepopulation,theextentofnaturalwealthandtheaccumulatedcapitalequipment,hasoftenbeentreateddescriptively。
  Butthepuretheoryofwhatdeterminestheactualemploymentoftheavailableresourceshasseldombeenexaminedingreatdetail。Tosaythatithasnotbeenexaminedatallwould,ofcourse,beabsurd。Foreverydiscussionconcerningfluctuationsofemployment,ofwhichtherehavebeenmany,hasbeenconcernedwithit。Imean,notthatthetopichasbeenoverlooked,butthatthefundamentaltheory[Page5]POSTULATES
  OFTHECLASSICALECONOMICS
  underlyingithasbeendeemedsosimpleandobviousthatithasreceived,atthemost,abaremention。[18]
  Theclassicaltheoryofemployment¾;supposedlysimpleandobvious¾;hasbeenbased,I
  think,ontwofundamentalpostulates,thoughpracticallywithoutdiscussion,namely:
  I。ThewageisequaltothemarginalproductoflabourThatistosay,thewageofanemployedpersonisequaltothevaluewhichwouldbelostifemploymentweretobereducedbyoneunitafterdeductinganyothercostswhichthisreductionofoutputwouldavoid;
  subject,however,tothequalificationthattheequalitymaybedisturbed,inaccordancewithcertainprinciples,ifcompetitionandmarketsareimperfect。
  II。Theutilityofthewagewhenagivenvolumeoflabourisemployedisequaltothemarginaldisutilityofthatamountofemployment。
  Thatistosay,therealwageofanemployedpersonisthatwhichisjustsufficientintheestimationoftheemployedpersonsthemselves
  toinducethevolumeoflabouractuallyemployedtobeforthcoming;subjecttothequalificationthattheequalityforeachindividualunitoflabourmaybedisturbedbycombinationbetweenemployableunitsanalogoustotheimperfections[Page6]THEGENERAL
  THEORYOFEMPLOYMENT
  ofcompetitionwhichqualifythefirstpostulate。Disutilitymustbehereunderstoodtocovereverykindofreasonwhichmightleadaman,orabodyofmen,towithholdtheirlabourratherthanacceptawagewhichhadtothemautilitybelowacertainminimum。
  Thispostulateiscompatiblewithwhatmaybecalled'frictional'unemployment。
  Forarealisticinterpretationofitlegitimatelyallowsforvariousinexactnessesofadjustmentwhichstandinthewayofcontinuousfullemployment:forexample,unemploymentduetoatemporarywantofbalancebetweentherelativequantitiesofspecialisedresourcesasaresultofmiscalculationorintermittentdemand;ortotime-lagsconsequentonunforeseenchanges;ortothefactthatthechange-overfromoneemploymenttoanothercannotbeeffectedwithoutacertaindelay,sothattherewillalwaysexistinanon-staticsocietyaproportionofresourcesunemployed'betweenjobs'。Inadditionto'frictional'unemployment,thepostulateisalsocompatiblewith'voluntary'
  unemploymentduetotherefusalorinabilityofaunitoflabour,asaresultoflegislationorsocialpracticesorofcombinationforcollectivebargainingorofslowresponsetochangeorofmerehumanobstinacy,toacceptarewardcorrespondingtothevalueoftheproductattributabletoitsmarginalproductivity。Butthesetwocategoriesof'frictional'
  unemploymentand'voluntary'unemploymentarecomprehensive。Theclassicalpostulatesdonotadmitofthepossibilityofthethirdcategory,whichIshalldefinebelowas'involuntary'unemployment。
  Subjecttothesequalifications,thevolumeofemployedresourcesisdulydetermined,accordingtotheclassicaltheory,bythetwopostulates。
  Thefirstgivesusthedemandscheduleforemployment,thesecondgivesusthesupplyschedule;andtheamountofemploymentisfixedatthepointwheretheutilityofthemarginalproductbalancesthedisutilityofthemarginalemployment。
  [Page7]POSTULATES
  OFTHECLASSICALECONOMICS
  Itwouldfollowfromthisthatthereareonlyfourpossiblemeansofincreasingemployment:
  aAnimprovementinorganisationorinforesightwhichdiminishes'frictional'unemployment;
  badecreaseinthemarginaldisutilityoflabour,asexpressedbytherealwageforwhichadditionallabourisavailable,soastodiminish'voluntary'unemployment;
  canincreaseinthemarginalphysicalproductivityoflabourinthewage-goodsindustriestouseProfessorPigou'sconvenienttermforgoodsuponthepriceofwhichtheutilityofthemoney-wagedepends;
  ordanincreaseinthepriceofnon-wage-goodscomparedwiththepriceofwage-goods,associatedwithashiftintheexpenditureofnon-wage-earnersfromwage-goodstonon-wage-goods。
  This,tothebestofmyunderstanding,isthesubstanceofProfessorPigou'sTheoryofUnemployment¾;theonlydetailedaccountoftheclassicaltheoryofemploymentwhichexists。
  [19]
  II
  Isittruethattheabovecategoriesarecomprehensiveinviewofthefactthatthepopulationgenerallyisseldomdoingasmuchworkasitwouldliketodoonthebasisofthecurrentwage?For,admittedly,morelabourwould,asarule,beforthcomingattheexistingmoney-wageifitweredemanded。[20]Theclassicalschoolreconcilethisphenomenonwiththeirsecondpostulatebyarguingthat,whilethedemandforlabour[Page8]THEGENERAL
  THEORYOFEMPLOYMENT
  attheexistingmoney-wagemaybesatisfiedbeforeeveryonewillingtoworkatthiswageisemployed,thissituationisduetoanopenortacitagreementamongstworkersnottoworkforless,andthatiflabourasawholewouldagreetoareductionofmoney-wagesmoreemploymentwouldbeforthcoming。Ifthisisthecase,suchunemployment,thoughapparentlyinvoluntary,isnotstrictlyso,andoughttobeincludedundertheabovecategoryof'voluntary'unemploymentduetotheeffectsofcollectivebargaining,etc。
  Thiscallsfortwoobservations,thefirstofwhichrelatestotheactualattitudeofworkerstowardsrealwagesandmoney-wagesrespectivelyandisnottheoreticallyfundamental,butthesecondofwhichisfundamental。
  Letusassume,forthemoment,thatlabourisnotpreparedtoworkforalowermoney-wageandthatareductionintheexistinglevelofmoney-wageswouldlead,throughstrikesorotherwise,toawithdrawalfromthelabourmarketoflabourwhichisnowemployed。Doesitfollowfromthisthattheexistinglevelofrealwagesaccuratelymeasuresthemarginaldisutilityoflabour?Notnecessarily。For,althoughareductionintheexistingmoney-wagewouldleadtoawithdrawaloflabour,itdoesnotfollowthatafallinthevalueoftheexistingmoney-wageintermsofwage-goodswoulddoso,ifitwereduetoariseinthepriceofthelatter。Inotherwords,itmaybethecasethatwithinacertainrangethedemandoflabourisforaminimummoney-wageandnotforaminimumrealwage。Theclassicalschoolhavetacitlyassumedthatthiswouldinvolvenosignificantchangeintheirtheory。Butthisisnotso。Forifthesupplyoflabourisnotafunctionofrealwagesasitssolevariable,theirargumentbreaksdownentirelyandleavesthequestionofwhattheactualemploymentwillbequiteindeterminate。
  [21]Theydonotseemtohaverealisedthat,unlessthesupplyoflabourisafunctionofrealwagesalone,[Page9]POSTULATES
  OFTHECLASSICALECONOMICS
  theirsupplycurveforlabourwillshiftbodilywitheverymovementofprices。Thustheirmethodistiedupwiththeirveryspecialassumptions,andcannotbeadaptedtodealwiththemoregeneralcase。
  Nowordinaryexperiencetellsus,beyonddoubt,thatasituationwherelabourstipulateswithinlimitsforamoney-wageratherthanarealwage,sofarfrombeingamerepossibility,isthenormalcase。Whilstworkerswillusuallyresistareductionofmoney-wages,itisnottheirpracticetowithdrawtheirlabourwheneverthereisariseinthepriceofwage-goods。
  Itissometimessaidthatitwouldbeillogicalforlabourtoresistareductionofmoney-wagesbutnottoresistareductionofrealwages。Forreasonsgivenbelowp。14,thismightnotbesoillogicalasitappearsatfirst;and,asweshallseelater,fortunatelyso。But,whetherlogicalorillogical,experienceshowsthatthisishowlabourinfactbehaves。
  Moreover,thecontentionthattheunemploymentwhichcharacterisesadepressionisduetoarefusalbylabourtoacceptareductionofmoney-wagesisnotclearlysupportedbythefacts。ItisnotveryplausibletoassertthatunemploymentintheUnitedStatesin1932wasdueeithertolabourobstinatelyrefusingtoacceptareductionofmoney-wagesortoitsobstinatelydemandingarealwagebeyondwhattheproductivityoftheeconomicmachinewascapableoffurnishing。Widevariationsareexperiencedinthevolumeofemploymentwithoutanyapparentchangeeitherintheminimumrealdemandsoflabourorinitsproductivity。Labourisnotmoretruculentinthedepressionthanintheboom¾;farfromit。Norisitsphysicalproductivityless。Thesefactsfromexperienceareaprimafaciegroundforquestioningtheadequacyoftheclassicalanalysis。
  It[22]wouldbeinterestingtoseetheresultsofastatisticalenquiryintotheactualrelationshipbetween[Page10]THEGENERAL